2024 Houston Cougar Football Preview

And there is much rejoicing, as college football season has returned.

Looking Back: Houston's first year in the Big 12 was a disappointment, as the team went 4-8 overall and 2-6 in their new conference. Of their four wins, three were decided by a combined total of six points. The Cougars lost to Rice, TCU and Cincinnati teams that all ended their seasons with losing records, and were shut out for the first time since 2000. At the end of the year, the University of Houston had no choice but to admit that their headline-grabbing gamble on Dana Holgorsen was an expensive failure and fire him.

The Big Story for 2024: For the Cougars, it's new head coach Willie Fritz. Fritz has extensive experience at almost every college coaching level and spent the last eight years at Tulane. 

Houston changes coaches as college football itself enters a new era: both conference realignment - welcome to the "Power 4" era - and an expanded, 12-team playoff will completely change the sport's landscape in 2024.

Reasons for Optimism: It's hard not to be optimistic about Willie Fritz, who brings a history of success to Houston. Tom Fornelli of cbssports.com explains:

After eight seasons at Tulane, where Fritz went 23-4 the last two years and beat USC in the Cotton Bowl, he's getting a crack at a Power Four job in Houston. The Big 12 is wide open for the foreseeable future. We don't know which, if any, will emerge as the league's dominant force. But given Fritz's successful history, don't rule out Houston.

At the very least, I expect Fritz will prove to be a better team motivator, and a better gameday coach, than Dana Holgorsen. That will hopefully account for some success this fall.

Some talent is returning as well. Donovan Smith (64.5% completion rate, 2,801 passing yards, 22 TDs and 13 interceptions in 2023) and returns as starting quarterback. Parker Jenkins (464 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on 99 attempts last season) returns at RB, Joseph Manjack (46 receptions for 577 yards and 6 TDs in 2023) returns at wide receiver, and Tank Jenkins returns on the O-line. On the other side of the ball, defensive back A. J. Haulcy, who led the team with 98 tackles last year, and linebacker Jamal Morris return.  

Reasons for Pessimism: Stop me if you've heard this before (last year, in fact!), but both the schedule and significant roster turnover are reasons I think the Cougars are going to struggle in 2024. 

The schedule is going to be brutal; in fact, Phil Steele thinks it's the fifth-toughest in the nation. The new-look Big 12 has five teams ranked in the AP preseason top 25.  The Cougars face four of them, along with former Big 12 powerhouse Oklahoma (now in the SEC). 

As for the roster, there's been a lot of churn: 63 newcomers on this year's team, to be exact. While significant turnover is probably the new normal for every team in the era of the transfer portal, 63 new faces is a lot for the program to absorb. It will take time for the team to find cohesiveness.

Finally, with a new staff comes new philosophies, new schemes and new personalities. While I'm optimistic about Willie Fritz in the longer term, in the shorter term he's going to face struggles while he instills his culture and vision for the program.

What the Computers Think: The Cougars are ranked 78th (out of 134 FBS schools) in ESPN's preseason Football Power Index and their game-by-game matchup predictor gives the Cougars more than a 50% chance of winning only two games: UNLV and Rice. Massey makes the same prediction, as do Sagarin's beginning-of-season ratings (when home field advantage is taken into consideration). The Congrove algorithm is even more pessimistic, predicting a winless season for the Cougars. Ouch!

What the Humans Think: When it comes to the Cougars, not much. The Coogs were picked 15th (out of 16 schools) in the Big 12 preseason media poll. Three of the eight sportswriters at cbssports.com predict that Houston will finish dead last in the Big 12, and only one (Dennis Dodd) thinks they will end the season higher than 13th. Heartland College Sports foresees another 4-8 campaign for the Cougars, while 247sports.com predicts a two-win season. CollegeFootballNews is slightly more optimistic, setting Houston's win total at 5.5, but thinks the only "likely win" is Rice.

What I think: Willie Fritz is by all accounts a good coach, but he's not a miracle worker. He's dealing with a roster that saw a lot of offseason turnover and he's facing a tough schedule. While I hope to see improvement as the season progresses, the team is likely to experience growing pains.

I'm predicting a three-win season, with home victories against UNLV, Rice, and Baylor. 

It probably won't be pretty. Rebuilding years usually aren't. But at least the UH faithful can enjoy the new videoboard and Trill Burgers while they watch the work in progress.

An unsettling thought

Though now mostly forgotten, Nazi Germany's U-boat campaign targeting the United States and its allies in the early days of World War II was Pearl Harbor-level catastrophe. U-boats operated along the Atlantic Coast, in the Caribbean and in the Gulf of Mexico and torpedoed freighters, tankers and transports with impunity. Between January and August of 1942, when the Allies were finally able to deploy effective countermeasures, the Nazis were able to sink 609 ships, destroy millions of tons of vital shipping, and claim the lives of thousands of sailors, both military and civilian. The operation also caused Mexico to enter the war on the side of the Allies.

This chron.com article about the now-almost-forgotten campaign and Galveston's role in defense against it contained this tidbit:

Rumors flew wildly, of secret German submarine bases in Mexico and crewmen coming ashore to go shopping or to the movies in Houston or New Orleans.

Which got me to thinking: if we had the same vectors of misinformation and conspiracy theories in the early 1940s as we do today - namely, social media - would the United States even had won World War II? One can only imagine the discord, disunity and chaos that Imperial Japan or Nazi Germany would have been able to sow had such technologies existed at the time.

It's unsettling to think about, especially since entities that wish to do harm to the United States are employing these exact practices today. 

Houston's poaches New Mexico's Athletics Director

Welcome, Eddie Nuñez.

Eddie Nunez has agreed to a five-year deal to become athletic director at the University of Houston, the school announced Saturday.

Nunez will leave the University of New Mexico for the Cougars and the Big 12 Conference. He was named the Lobos' athletic director in 2017, and his title was changed to include vice president in 2021.

Nunez, who played basketball for former coach Billy Donovan and the Florida Gators, also worked for LSU's athletic department, and will now head a university trying to gain its footing in the clogged Big 12. He will be introduced Wednesday.

"Eddie Nunez brings a wealth of experience and a proven track record of success during a time of great transformation in college athletics," Houston president Renu Khator said in a statement. "His leadership will be critical as we continue to elevate our athletics programs, enhance the student-athlete experience and build on the tremendous momentum at the University of Houston."

Chris Pezman's six-and-a-half year stint as Houston's Athletics Director surprisingly and unceremoniously came to an end last June. Pezman never really lived up to his expectations at the helm of UH athletics; his contract extension for Dana Holgorsen was ill-advised and many of UH's non-revenue sports have been struggling. Apparently his relationship with President Khator became increasingly strained over time as well. After a two-month-long search, Nuñez was formally introduced as Pezman's replacement last Wednesday.

Nuñez seems to have been well-regarded at New Mexico, but he faces a tough set of challenges at Houston. UH's athletics budget is dead last of all Power Four schools, and fundraising has been anemic. In the NIL era, that's a recipe for disaster. Khator, for her part, has a vision to double the University of Houston's athletics budget. That's going to be a tall order for Nuñez; however, he was apparently successful fundraising in New Mexico. According to Miami athletics director Dan Radakovich, "Nuñez is a 'relationship person' who excels at raising money."

“He is also very gifted as a fundraiser,” Radakovich said. “You can get a lot of people together that you think might want to give some dollars, but it’s another thing to ask for them. And Eddie will ask for the gifts. The University of Houston has hired someone that is going to help take them to the next level.” 

I hope that proves to be the case. 

In addition to finding new sources of revenue fo UH athletics, Nuñez will also have to address the struggling non-revenue sports (baseball, softball, womens basketball) that Pezman essentially ignored.

Nuñez's contract will pay him a base salary of five million dollars over five years.

Another unique Houston air connection comes to an end

I always hate to see Houston lose direct connections to interesting international cities as well as service from flagship foreign carriers, but this doesn't surprise me: 

Singapore Airlines announced this week it will suspend its service between Houston's Bush Intercontinental Airport and Manchester, England, in April 2025.

The route is the lone service from Singapore Airlines in the Houston market. The decision was made "in line with its capacity adjustments," according to a news release.

Manchester is the only airport with direct flights and from IAH via Singapore Airlines. 

As the article notes, Singapore Airlines has been serving Houston since 2008. Originally, the flights operated with a stopover at Domodedovo Airport in Moscow; however, in 2016 the stopover shifted from Moscow to Manchester.

The Houston-Manchester flights are considered fifth freedom flights. A fifth freedom flight is when a plane departs and lands in two different countries, neither of which is the home country for the airline. They are allowed when the flight will have originated or will end at an airport in the airline's home base.

In the case of the Houston-to-Manchester flight, the plane continues to Singapore following its landing in Manchester. The flight starts in Singapore when going in reverse.

After the service change in 2025, Singapore Airlines will still fly to Manchester; it simply will not continue on to Houston anymore. 

It was an interesting service, but it always seemed sort of odd because there doesn't seem to be a lot of economic or social ties between Houston and Manchester.  Ben Shlappig at One Mile at at Time seems to agree, suggesting a couple of reasons for the discontinuation:

• For those traveling between Houston and Singapore, the travel time from Houston to Singapore is comparable via Los Angeles or San Francisco (compared to via Manchester)
• I can’t imagine the Houston to Manchester market is that huge, especially on a year-round basis; if it had significant demand, you’d think it’s a route that United would operate, and United has a huge advantage, given its transatlantic joint venture and loyal customer base in the area

So my assumption has been that the route is just performing okay(ish), with a moderate amount of demand between Houston and Manchester, plus substantial demand between Houston and Singapore. Furthermore, obviously Singapore Airlines is committed to the Manchester to Singapore market.

Some of the commenters on Schlappig's post seem to think the reason is because Singapore's premium product isn't as good as other carriers flying between Houston and Asia, such as Qatar Airways, rendering it less competitive for high-end local travelers.

Singapore doubtlessly operated this service because it wanted to tap into to fellow Star Alliance member United's hub at IAH. In that regard, Simple Flying seems to wonder why Singapore didn't choose to operate the flight via another Star Alliance hub in Europe, such as Brussels or Zürich, in order to provide better connectivity to the alliance's network. (Nonstop flights from Houston to Switzerland would have been awesome!)

To be sure, Shlappig notes that Singapore Airlines is officially "suspending" the service, rather than cutting it entirely. But I'd be surprised to see it ever resume.

So, if you have a desire to fly nonstop from Houston to Manchester or direct to Singapore, you have until April of next year to do so.

No, I'm not still bitter

Last June, I made a trip to Nashville, Tennessee for a family reunion. It was my first visit to Music City since I was a kid. 

While I was there, I spent some time walking around downtown. I listened to some live music, enjoyed some Tennessee whiskey, and took in some landmarks.

I got to see the Ryman Auditorium, which is the historic home of the Grand Ole Opry...

...and paid a visit to the interesting Johnny Cash museum. (Did you know Johnny Cash, while working as a radio interceptor for the US Air Force in Germany, was the first American to learn of Joseph Stalin's death? Or that the Man in Black appeared on Sesame Street in the early '70s?)

I also took a stroll across the Cumberland River on the pedestrian bridge. There I saw Nissan Stadium, the home of the Tennessee Titans. It opened in 1999, two years after Bud Adams moved what was then known as the Houston Oilers to Tennessee. 

As somebody who grew up a Houston Oilers fan, I saluted it appropriately.

I'm not still bitter. Not at all.

The Paris Olympics

Another Summer Olympiad has come and gone. I have some thoughts.

Did we win or tie? The United States won the most medals overall, with 126. China came in second, with 91. Great Britain, host nation France, and Australia rounded out the top five.

However, the United States is one of the few countries that prefers to tally national Olympics performance by overall medals; the rest of the world seems to prefer a "gold first" tallying system. Under that method, the United States and China are tied as the most successful National Olympic Committees in the XXXIII Olympiad, with 40 medals apiece. 

But even that method has a tie-breaker: the number of silver medals awarded. In that case, the United States still comes out ahead because its athletes won 44 silvers, to China's 27.

Italy had the most "aluminum metals," i.e. fourth-place finishes, with 26. I'd make fun, except that the United States came in second in that category, with 22. I've always felt bad for athletes who just miss the podium. It must almost feel better to come in 5th or 6th, rather than 4th.

Welcome to the medals club! Albania, Cape Verde, Dominica and St. Lucia all won their first-ever medals at these Olympics, the latter two winning golds. The Refugee Olympic Team, which has been competing since 2016, won its first medal as well. 

Botswana and Guatemala have previously medaled but won their first-ever golds in Paris.

Medals per capita. The aforementioned Dominica and St. Lucia leave Paris as the world leaders in the production of gold medals per capita, with one gold medal per 67,400 and 184,100 residents, respectively. For comparison's sake, the United States won one gold for every 8,397,000 residents, while China won one gold for every 35,242,000 residents. 

The most productive nation in overall medals is Grenada, with one medal per 56,300 residents. On the other end of the spectrum is India, which didn't win any gold medals and whose athletes only produced one medal per 235,152,000 residents. There are many reasons as to why the world's most populous nation underperforms in the Olympics.  

They weren't missed. Russia might be a traditional Olympics heavyweight, but that country (and neighboring Belorussia) were completely absent from the 2024 Olympics, both having been banned due to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. 

Given that Russia's "ban" from the 2020 summer games (as well as the 2022 winter games) following a massive doping scandal was a complete joke, I can't say I was upset at the country's complete absence from this year's games. The IOC should continue to ban Russia from all Olympic contests until at least Vladimir Putin dies.

A handful of Russian and Belorussian athletes were able to compete in Paris as part of an "Individual Neutral Athletes" team.

Want to see how your favorite college performed in the Olympics? There's a table for that. It ranks the number of medals produced per NCAA-participating institution, regardless of whether the student-athletes of a given university competed for the United States or some other nation. Stanford is the clear winner with 39 medals, with Cal and Texas a distant second and third, respectively. 

The University of Houston accounted for two medals, both in the men's 4x100 relay. South Africa's Shaun Maswanganyi, who won silver, and Great Britain's Louie Hinchliffe, who won bronze, both compete on the Cougar track and field team under coach (and Olympic legend) Carl Lewis.

They just keep getting faster. Speaking of Carl Lewis, 40 years ago he won gold in the Men's 100 meter sprint with a time of 9.99 seconds. That wouldn't have even been fast enough to qualify for the final round of the 2024 race. American Noah Lyles broke a 20-year American drought in the event by winning gold with a time of 9.784 - just five one-thousandths of a second ahead of Jamaica's Kishane Thompson - in a finish that even had the announcer fooled.

Unlikely up-and-comer? The South American nation winning the most medals was Brazil, with 20 (and who thought that country would become a gymnastics powerhouse?). The South American country with the second-highest number of medals was... Ecuador. 

Four years ago I joked about Ecuador becoming an Olympic powerhouse after they won three medals in Tokyo. Obviously they've got a ways to go before they reach that level, but the five medals the Ecuadorians won in Paris matches the total number of medals the county has won in all previous Olympics combined. 

An Urban Olympad. I really enjoyed the city-focused format of these games. From the Opening Ceremony featuring a parade of nations along the Seine, to the Olympic flame being located adjacent to the Louvre (rather than in a stadium), to the beach volleyball court located in the shadow of the Eiffel Tower, to the bicycle races being held in the city streets, the games' organizers did a great job making all of Paris the backdrop, rather than the fancy, specially-built venues designed to be the centerpieces of previous Olympics. Most of the event venues used for these Olympics were either previously existing or were temporary.

A word on NBC's coverage. If you've read this blog for any length of time you know that I love to trash NBC's Olympics coverage. However, I really don't have a lot to complain about this time around.

For those able to watch it, NBC's daytime coverage was - dare I say it? - actually pretty good. They switched between events as they occurred and provided live look-ins on events being shown on other channels or streaming platforms (and told you where to find them if you wanted to continue watching). Since it was all live there was little in the way of maudlin "human interest" stories and other pointless tidbits that detract from the overall coverage of the games. Sometimes they even covered sports that did not feature American athletes! 

NBC's primetime coverage, on the other hand, was their typical formulaic, over-edited digest that we all love to hate. But even then they finally seems to be getting away from the fiction that their prime-time coverage - which is happening in the wee hours of the morning in Paris - is somehow "live." In an age of streaming services, push notifications and social media, NBC appears to have accepted that the days when a single network can gate keep the entire Olympics are now long gone.

I still think that replacing Bob Costas with Mike Tirico was one of biggest improvements NBC has ever made in regards to their Olympics coverage.  Tirico just needs to brush up on his vexillology before his next Olympics broadcast.

Time lists the twelve most memorable things of the 2024 Olympics, while Yahoo Sports breaks down the biggest events of the games by each day of competition.

Assisi

(This entry has been sitting on my computer, half-finished, for almost two years, so I finally decided to complete it.)

As part of our trip to Italy in November 2022, Corinne and I made a brief trip to Assisi. It is just southeast of Perugia, where we stayed with Corinne's nephew and niece-in-law for Thanksgiving. 

Assisi is religiously significant and is a UNESCO heritage site. Its Sister Cities include other pilgrimage towns, such as Bethlehem and Santiago de Compostela, as well as a city in California that is named after Assisi's most famous resident.

Assisi is like so many other villages in central Italy's Umbria region: founded in ancient times, nestled atop a hillside, full of medieval buildings and picturesque cobblestone streets. Here's a view of the town overlooked by the Rocca Maggiore fortress. 

Another Assisi street scene, featuring a small restaurant. Timelessly charming spaces like these can found in almost any medieval Italian hilltop town.

This is Assisi Cathedral, where Francis worshipped. The church was begun in 1140 and completed by 1253. It is an example of Romanesque architecture.

At the door of Assisi Cathedral is a sculpture of a lion eating a Christian martyr: a not-so-subtle reminder of the struggle of the young Christian church within the pagan Roman Empire.

The interior of Assisi Cathedral, with a statue of St. Francis on the left. Born into a wealthy family, Francis swore off that lifestyle in his twenties and embraced a life of poverty and penance. He founded the Franciscan religious order in 1210 and today is one of the most venerated figures in Christianity.

Another Assisi street scene. I could never get tired of walking these quaint, centuries-old cobblestone streets.

One of Francis's first followers was Claire, who founded a Franciscan religious order for nuns. She was canonized in 1255; construction of the Basilica of St. Claire began two years later. The flying buttresses to the left were added in the 1300s. St. Claire's remains are in the church's crypt.

Assisi overlooks the countryside of Umbria. When we visited in late November it was misty but not particularly cold.

The Piazza del Comune, which is Assisi's central square. The Temple of Minerva on the right was built by the Romans in the 1st century BC; it now houses a church. The adjacent bell tower was built in the 13th century. 

The Basilica of Saint Francis of Assisi, which was begun in 1228, the same year Francis was canonized as a saint. Christian pilgrims come to this church to pay respect to Francis, whose remains are located within the church. 

Another view of the Basilica, which features both Romanesque and Gothic architectural elements.

On our way to the Basilica we stopped at a cafe to use the restroom and get a refreshment. A nun came in, spoke to us in English, and upon discovering we were from the United States offered us a blessing: a charming memory of Assisi we'll always have.

Corinne and I downloaded and listened to a Rick Steves audiotour of Assisi as we walked through the town, which we found very helpful. For more Rick Steves commentary on Assisi, check out this video (beginning at the 13:48 mark).