Friday, September 03, 2021

2021 Houston Cougar Football Preview (and a Word about Realignment)

Before I jump into my season preview, I should probably acknowledge the big news of the offseason, which is the impending relocation of Texas and Oklahoma from the Big XII conference to the SEC. This news was sudden but shouldn't have been surprising, considering the Big XII's historical instability and the University of Texas's insatiable greed. 

Texas and OU's move to the SEC, which will happen sometime before the 2025 season, is likely going to have a huge effect on all of college football. The Big Ten, PAC-12 and ACC have formed an "alliance" to counter any advantages the new, 16-team SEC might gain, while further discussions about expanding the College Football Playoff may be put on hold while things shake out. 

The Big XII, for its part, appears ready to make up for the losses of Texas and Oklahoma by inviting the University of Houston and three other schools to join their party. Assuming the Big XII can retain its status as a "Power 5" conference, this move would be of obvious benefit for the Cougar athletics program. However, I'm not going to start popping the champagne bottles yet, as I've seen the Coogs get screwed by conference realignment before. Should the Cougars actually receive that golden ticket and join the top tier of the college football world, they will be facing a new level of competition on the field and they will need to show that they deserved the promotion.

Unfortunately, Houston has not been competitive - the 2019 and 2020 seasons are the Coogs' first back-to-back losing seasons since the end of the Helton-Dimel Era of Suckitude - and head coach Dana Holgorsen goes into his third season at the helm feeling some pressure to win. The current unsettled nature of the college football landscape is only going to add to that pressure. 

With all that said, here's my take on the 2021 UH Cougar football season, which begins tomorrow evening at NRG Stadium against current Big XII member Texas Tech:

Looking back: the 2020 season was so plagued by COVID-related disruptions and cancellations - the Cougars only played seven out of their twelve scheduled regular-season games - that it's hard to take away a lot from it other than that UH was decidedly mediocre. They beat the teams they were expected to beat, but fell short of notching statement wins against BYU and Memphis and were thoroughly outclassed by UCF and Cincinnati. The Cougars ended the 2020 season with a 3-5 record.

The Big Story for 2021: Dana Holgorsen has a 7-13 record after two seasons at Houston, and clearly is not living up to the expectations that come with his $4 million/year salary. It's time for him to change the narrative; for his own sake as well as the sake of the program, he really needs to put together a winning season this fall.

Reasons for Optimism: the schedule - assuming the Cougars get to play all of it this season - is pretty easy. The opponents on this schedule combined for a record of 41-51 last season. The Coogs play seven games in the City of Houston, they get SMU and Memphis at home, and they avoid Cincinnati and Central Florida - the two teams that utterly embarrassed them last year - altogether.

Clayton Tune returns at quarterback. He has 17 starts under his belt and showed flashes of brilliance last fall. The time is now for him to step up and break the offense open. He has plenty of experience to work with, including sixth-year senior Mulbah Car at running back, junior tight end Christian Trahan, and junior wide receiver Jeremy Singleton. 

The defense showed improvement in 2020 and could be pretty stout this fall. While last year's two best players - Grant Stuard and Payton Turner - are now in the NFL, there's still a wealth of talent for new defensive coordinator Doug Belk to work with. Keep your eye on cornerbacks Marcus Jones and Damarion Williams, as well as defensive end David Anenih, linebacker Deontay Anderson, and hybrid DE/LB Derek Parish. 

Reasons for Pessimism: Clayton Tune's experience aside, he has not been spectacular at this position. He turned the ball over way too many times last season (10 interceptions and three fumbles), took way too many sacks, and only completed 15 touchdown passes. Of course, Tune can only be as good as the protection his offensive line gives him, and until proven otherwise the OL is this team's biggest weakness. 

The receiving corps is another area of concern. A lot of talent has been lost from last year's team, as Marquez Stevenson joined the NFL and several other players either transferred out or were declared academically ineligible. WRs coach and UH football legend Tyron Carrier was mysteriously and unceremoniously dismissed from his job last spring, suggesting that this may be a platoon in turmoil.

One of Houston's biggest problems last year were slow starts. In six of the eight games they played last season, the Cougars trailed by double digits at some point in the first half. While the Coogs oftentimes made second half rallies, these were usually too little, too late. If the Cougars are to win games his fall, they need to jump out to leads early in the game.

What the Humans Think: Athlon acknowledges that the team's depth has improved but that questions remain, especially on the offensive side of the ball. "The schedule is favorable enough with seven games in Houston that anywhere from eight to 10 wins should be the expectation," they write. College Football News anticipates a nine win season, while Dave Campbell's Texas Football pegs the Coogs as an 8-4 team. CBS Sports ranks the Coogs 72nd (out of 130 FBS teams) to start the season, and their panel of sportswriters generally has a mediocre outlook for them. For what it's worth the Coogs also garnered a handful of votes in the preseason AP top 25 poll.

What the Computers Think: 

Sagarin's initial ratings put Houston 66th with an starting rating of 70.85. That would imply a record of 10 and 2, when the ratings of opposing schools and the home field advantage are taken into account (the game against Texas Tech at NRG stadium is considered to be neutral-site). ESPN's FPI suggests that the Cougars will have an 8-4 season this fall (although the SMU and Memphis games are essentially toss-ups) Congrove predicts a 7-5 record for Houston, while Massey's algorithm foresees a 6-6 record (although five of those games are essentially tossups).

What I think: I've heard all the arguments for why this will be a good season for the Cougars: the schedule is easier, quarterback Clayton Tune has more starts under his belt, the defense has been steadily improving, a lot of talent is coming onto the team through the transfer portal, etc. But it really seems like I've heard these arguments before. Right now, I'm unconvinced.

I'm not convinced that Clayton Tune can transcend the limits of his natural skillset, nor am I convinced that the offensive line can protect him, nor am I convinced that he has a strong and talented corps of receivers to throw to. While the defense might be fun to watch this fall, defenses don't score points. I expect the Cougars to be involved in a lot of low-scoring slogs. 

Moreover, I'm not convinced that this is really what Dana Holgorsen wants to be doing. I've watched his demeanor on the sidelines, I've noticed his less-than-impressive recruiting effort, I've seen his offenses sputter even though he is supposedly an offensive genius. Sometimes I feel that he just wants to collect a few more fat paychecks at UH's expense and head off into the sunset. 

There's really no excuse for this team not to win nine or ten games with this relatively weak schedule, but I'm not convinced they will. So I'm going on record with a prediction of a 6-6 7-5* season for the Houston Cougars this fall, with a season-opening loss to Texas Tech at NRG, road losses to Tulane, Tulsa and Temple, and home losses to SMU and Memphis.

I hope that Dana Holgorsen and the Cougars convince me that I am wrong.

*After I drafted this, Tulsa lost to FCS program California-Davis at home, which would suggest that they are a weaker program than I originally anticipated.

No comments: