Houston 30, TCU 19

A pleasant surprise! Last Friday, the Cougars finally found some offensive momentum in route to an upset of the heavily-favored TCU Horned Frogs in Fort Worth.

The Good: Starting in place of struggling Donovan Smith, quarterback Zeon Chriss provided the spark the offense needed. He completed 15 of 18 passes for 141 yards and a touchdown. Even better, he ran for a 71-yard touchdown late in the second quarter. The UH offense amassed 361 total yards in this game (207 of them on the ground) and did not turn the ball over.

Donovan Smith finally entered the game in the fourth quarter after Chriss got hurt and led the Cougars on a clock-chewing 14-play drive that ended in a field goal. Credit to him for continuing to be a competitor even though he lost his job as starter.

On the defensive side of the ball, defensive back A.J. Haulcy pulled down two interceptions. The Coogs forced four Frog turnovers in total. While the story of this game was that Houston's offense finally got on track, The defense's improvement continues be a bright spot to the 2024 season. Through six games last year, the Coogs ranked 114th in total defense. Through six games this season, they are ranked 22nd. 

Kicker Jack Martin scored his first points of the season: three field goals and three extra points. Two of those field goals accounted for UH's only points in the second half and kept the TCU from being able to establish momentum for a second-half comeback.

The Bad: Since losing to Georgia in the 2022 national championship game, the Frogs are 8-10. Head coach Sonny Dykes's seat might be getting warm...

The Ugly: Former head coach Dana Holgorsen now works as a defensive consultant for TCU, even as he continues to collect buyout paychecks from the University of Houston. It doesn't look like TCU is getting their money's worth from him, either, as Ryan explains:

Dana Holgorsen’s job at TCU is to prepare their defense for the opponent’s offense. Who better than Dana to get them ready for UH, right?

Houston scored six times (3 TDs, 3 FGS) against the Dana-prepped Frog defense. That’s the most scoring drives UH has had in Big 12 play, including the nine league games Dana coached last season. The six scoring drives match the combined total from Dana’s last two games at Houston.

What It Means: In addition to breaking the back-to-back shutout streak, the Cougars broke a nine-game losing streak to TCU, stretching back to the Southwest Conference. Until last Friday, the Cougars hadn't beaten TCU at Amon Carter Stadium since 1989.

All things considered, this was a milestone win for Willie Fritz and his team.

The Cougars now have a week off to enjoy the win, heal and prepare before going back on the road to face Kansas at Arrowhead Park in Kansas City. 

The stars at night are big and bright...

Taken at Corinne's aunt's farm outside of Mexia, Texas last weekend. I must say that the "Night mode" on my iPhone 14's camera works pretty well... 

You can choose two out of three

A great diagram:

Tapping the sign pic.twitter.com/JTpiGZCnCm

— How-Sen (@HowSenChong) October 8, 2024

Granted, "successful city" means different things to different people; to me, that means a metropolitan area that is economically vital and a place where people want to live, work and play. 

That means that there are going to be a lot of people traveling around said city, and there are trade-offs when it comes to how people want to travel around. If the private automobile is the preferred method of travel (as it is in most US cities), then there is going to be congestion. 

We can't "build our way out if it;" it just doesn't work that way.

Trust me; I've been in the transportation planning profession for a quarter-century.

Houston 0, #18 Iowa State 20

For the first time since the 1994, Houston's football program has suffered back-to-back shutouts.

The Good: the Cougar defense has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season. They held the 18th-ranked Cyclones to a field goal until late in the third quarter, and to a respectable 20 points for the entire game.  

Brad Towns calls UH defensive lineman Zykeius Strong's breakup of a Iowa State pass in the end zone "the play of the year" and breaks down how Strong as well as other defensive players all did their job to hold ISU to a field goal early in the game. Towns explains: 

In a rough season with many dark clouds and disappointment, these are the small rays of light that get me excited. The defense has shown that it can be turned around and contribute winning plays.

The Bad: Obviously it doesn't matter how well the defense plays when, for the second game in a row, the offense can't manage so much as a field goal. In addition to not scoring any points, the offense could only convert one of ten third downs and was 0 for 2 on fourth down. Donovan Smith had another rough game, completing only 8 passes for 77 yards and an interception.

The Ugly: In the fourth quarter, an Iowa State defender slipped and allowed a UH receiver to get wide open in the end zone for what could have been an easy touchdown. However, instead of seeing the open receiver, Smith threw into the corner of the endzone, where his pass was intercepted. This play exemplifies Smith's struggles at quarterback:

via GIPHY

What It Means: Martin Marroquin counsels Houston football fans to find "realistic expectations" for their team this fall:

Developing a culture is important to success, and having that many new faces means you’re starting from ground zero in every facet, more so with a new staff leading those players. This should never have been seen as an overnight transformation. To compare: Kelvin Sampson started off with a losing season and didn’t get to the NCAA Tournament until year four, and he only needs 13 players to buy in.

Most of the UH fanbase seemed happy to move on from Dana Holgorsen and equally glad to have Willie Fritz as the man to come in and right the ship. And here we are, five games into the new regime and clinging to whatever hope is available.

Outside of the win against Rice, the team has found the endzone just twice in four games, including donuts in the last two outings. Still, I think Fritz deserves an opportunity to establish his culture and build his roster before fans turn away. Even with how poorly things are going. 

Martin's right, of course. Fritz was not going to turn things around in just one season and fans need to be patient and enjoy "the small successes" (such as the defense). But that's going to be hard for the fanbase to do, especially since at this point it seems unlikely that the Cougars will win another game this season. 

Next up for the Cougars is a trip to Fort Worth for a Friday night showdown against the Horned Frogs. Can they avoid three shutouts in a row?

Houston 0, Cincinnati 34

The Cougars were supposed to make a road trip to Cincinnati last weekend. Unfortunately, they never bothered to show up. 

Ryan says there was no good or bad - just ugly - in this game, and I agree, so...

The Ugly: In addition to being shut out, the Cougars were outgained, 362 yards to 233 (they only managed 99 passing yards), managed only 12 first downs the entire game (the Bearcats had 22), turned the ball over three times (Cinci had no turnovers), missed what should have been an easy field goal, and were penalized seven times for 68 yards. 

In short, pretty much everything that could have gone wrong for the Cougars did.

What It Means: The team appeared to be making progress over the past couple of weeks, but took a big step backwards last Saturday. Through the season's first four games, UH's offense has been utterly abysmal, as Ryan explains: 

Houston is now 129th nationally (out of 133) in scoring at 13.0 ppg. The Cougars have scored 7, 12, 33, 0 for a total of 52 points in their first four games.

Yikes.

Next up for the Cougars is #18-ranked Iowa State at TDECU Stadium. This will be the very first meeting between the two programs.

Houston 33, Rice 7

The Cougars easily avenged last year's loss to their crosstown rivals.

The Good: After sputtering through the first two games of the season, the UH offense finally came to life. Quarterback Donavan Smith passed for 142 yards and a touchdown, and rushed for two more scores, and  threw no interceptions. RB Stacy Sneed scored on a 65-yard touchdown run of his own. Mehki Mews returned a punt 75 yards for a touchdown as well. The Cougar defense kept the Owls off the scoreboard until late in the fourth quarter, made an interception that led to an easy UH touchdown, and limited Rice to 159 total offensive yards for the entire game.

The Bad: While he had a good game overall, Smith only completed 12 of 21 passes and appears to continue to struggle with his passing decisions. The Coogs' third-down efficiency - they only converted 6 of 14 attempts - still isn't great. Two UH defensive players were ejected for targeting.

What It Means: Rice is unlikely to be mistaken for a good team this season, so it's hard to tell just how much this victory means in terms of the Coogs' prospects for the remainder of the fall. But getting the win - the first of the Willie Fritz era - and bringing the Bayou Bucket back to Cullen Boulevard is nevertheless a milestone in this team's rebuilding process.

The Cougars now travel to Cincinnati to begin Big 12 conference play.

Perugia's Minimetrò

One more post about our Thanksgiving trip to Italy almost two years ago. This one is inspired by a YouTube video I recently came across.  

The Italian town of Perugia, where Corinne and I stayed while visiting her nephew and niece-in-law over the holiday, is served by a automated people mover system called the "Minimetrò." Corinne and I rode the Minimetrò during our stay in Perugia, and I took some pictures.

The single-line system is explored in the first six-and-a-half minutes of the YouTube video linked above (the rest of the video is dedicated to another "gadgetbahn" in Bologna) and provides a pretty comprehensive overview of the system. Unlike the person in the video, we did not ride it end-to-end; we just took it a few stops from the Case Bruciate neighborhood (where Corinne's nephew and niece-in-law lived) to the city center to do some exploring and shopping.

The three-kilometer-long line opened in 2008. It has has seven stations and runs from Perugia's medieval city center, located at the top of a hill, to a large park-and-ride on the outskirts of town. The purpose of this line is to reduce automobile traffic in the old city center by giving people a way to get there without using their vehicle.

The system is serviced by small cabs that can probably carry a maximum 15 to 20 passengers each. They come at fairly-frequent intervals - as short as 60 seconds between cabs - so you're never waiting long at a station for one to arrive. Here's a picture of Corinne entering a cab (and carrying a bag of Perugina chocolate!) at the Pincetto station in the city center. 

The cabs are pulled between stations by cables, which are plainly visible in the picture above. A single ride currently costs €1.50, although a variety of fare options are available.

The Minimetrò also provides connectivity to Italy's larger railway network by way of a station near Perugia's main train station. It crosses just north of the main train platform (see photo above) and there is a walkway between the two stations.

The map of the MiniMetrò system on the urbanrail.net website suggests that a second, north-south line connecting to the existing line in the city center is planned. 

My overall impression of the Minimetrò was that it was prompt, comfortable and easy to use (it didn't hurt that the signage was in English as well as Italian). Given the relatively small volumes of people the system can carry, I'm not sure if it is truly an efficient mode of transportation. However, since Perugia's population is just over 160 thousand people, maybe it doesn't need to carry large volumes of people in order to be effective. 

In terms of public transportation technologies, it is certainly unique.

Houston 12, Oklahoma 16

Well... The Coogs covered the spread:

Jackson Arnold threw two touchdown passes and No. 15 Oklahoma held off Houston 16-12 on Saturday night.

The Sooners (2-0) struggled to move the ball and punted eight times. The Cougars (0-2) outgained Oklahoma 318-249 in total yards, including 260-174 in passing.

Oklahoma got a late interception from Robert Spears-Jennings to end one drive and a late safety from Gracen Halton to extend a slim lead.

“We did enough things wrong to deserve to lose,” Oklahoma coach Brent Venables said. “We were fortunate to find a way to win. Overall, our body of work on offense not very good today. I’m really proud of the guys that stepped up when they had an opportunity."

The Good: The UH defense only allowed OU to score 14 points - none after halftime - and seven of those were the result of a short field caused by a muffed punt (more on that in a moment). They picked off Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold once, sacked him three times, and limited the Sooners to 4-14 on third down conversion attempts. 

The Bad: If Oklahoma's offense sputtered, Houston's wasn't much better. They themselves could only manage 4 third-down conversions on 15 attempts and only gained 58 rushing yards. Ryan takes note of Houston's abysmal offensive numbers through two games:

The Cougars are 129th in scoring (out of 133) at 9.5 points per game. Only three teams have scored fewer touchdowns than UH.

The Coogs are 130th in third down conversion percentage. UH was 4/7 converting on 3rd and short (1-4 yards) vs. OU, with the notable difference in attempts being way up from week one (UH was 0/2 vs. UNLV). UH is 2/14 converting on third and long this season (9+ yards).

The Ugly: Punt returner Mekhi Mews was charged with a muffed punt on Houston's ten yard line early in the game. Although reviews suggested he didn't actually touch the ball, the referees did not reverse their call and the Sooners subsequently scored. The Cougars failed on their two-point conversion attempt after they scored early in the third quarter (way too early to start chasing the points, IMO). And a poorly-executed run from the Coogs' own five yard line resulted in a safety that effectively ended the game.

What It Means: The Sooners made just enough mistakes to lose; however, the Cougars made just enough errors of their own to be unable to take advantage and pull off the upset. I don't want to take anything away from this result; facing the 15th-ranked team in the nation in front of 83,653 fans and losing by only four points is an accomplishment, especially given how poorly the Cougars played a week ago, and certainly suggests that this team is improving. 

But wow... What could have been.

Next up for the Coogs is crosstown rival Rice, at TDECU Stadium. Can they avenge last year's loss?

Houston 7, UNLV 27

 Yeah, it's going to be a long season.

The University of Houston Cougars football team endured a tough 27-7 loss to the UNLV Rebels in their home season opener on Saturday evening.

It marked a challenging start for Houston, as the Cougars went scoreless through the first three quarters, trailing 14-0 at halftime. The Cougars' lone score came in the final minute of the fourth quarter when wide receiver Joseph Manjack IV managed a 2-yard touchdown, narrowing the deficit to 27-7. However, this late effort was not enough to overcome a sluggish offensive performance.

If the 7-27 score, with the Coogs' lone touchdown coming in garbage time, sounds familiar, that's because it is. (They were passing out rally towels to fans commemorating the tenth anniversary of TDECU Stadium's opening. I guess the team decided to do some commemoration of its own...)

The UH defense, in spite of some lapses, actually held its own. They gave up a respectable 20 points and 308 yards of offense, even though they were oftentimes put in bad positions by the offense. They intercepted Las Vegas once and stuffed them on fourth down once. 

The offense, on the other hand, was abysmal. Quarterback Donavan Smith had his worst game in a UH uniform, completing only 15 of 30 passes for 135 yards and two interceptions. He looked tentative, held on to the ball too long, and made poor decisions; it simply wasn't a good game for him. It certainly didn't help that he has no protection from what is probably the weakest offensive line in recent UH football program history. It can neither pass block - Smith was sacked six times - nor run block, as evidenced by the Cougars' pathetic 38 total rushing yards.

It's true that the football program is adjusting to new players, new coaches, new schemes, new everything. It's also true that the Rebels are not a bad team - they won nine games, were Mountain West Conference runners-up, and went to a bowl last year. But I was nevertheless very surprised at just how bad the Cougars looked last Saturday: aside from the poor offense, there were special teams miscues, missed tackles, and too many penalties (ten for 74 yards). This team has a lot of work ahead of them.

Ryan runs some numbers from Fritz's "horrific" debut, while Brad believes that, with this loss, the Cougars "set the bar so low that it is nearly impossible to not improve" as the season progresses:

I don’t believe that hardships build character. I believe that hardships reveal character, and your response to hardships is what builds character. You might also hear that competition makes you stronger. That is partially true because competition reveals your weaknesses. How you address those weaknesses is what makes you stronger.

Next up for the Cougars is a trip to Norman to play the Oklahoma Sooners. They are 29-point underdogs.

2024 Houston Cougar Football Preview

And there is much rejoicing, as college football season has returned.

Looking Back: Houston's first year in the Big 12 was a disappointment, as the team went 4-8 overall and 2-6 in their new conference. Of their four wins, three were decided by a combined total of six points. The Cougars lost to Rice, TCU and Cincinnati teams that all ended their seasons with losing records, and were shut out for the first time since 2000. At the end of the year, the University of Houston had no choice but to admit that their headline-grabbing gamble on Dana Holgorsen was an expensive failure and fire him.

The Big Story for 2024: For the Cougars, it's new head coach Willie Fritz. Fritz has extensive experience at almost every college coaching level and spent the last eight years at Tulane. 

Houston changes coaches as college football itself enters a new era: both conference realignment - welcome to the "Power 4" era - and an expanded, 12-team playoff will completely change the sport's landscape in 2024.

Reasons for Optimism: It's hard not to be optimistic about Willie Fritz, who brings a history of success to Houston. Tom Fornelli of cbssports.com explains:

After eight seasons at Tulane, where Fritz went 23-4 the last two years and beat USC in the Cotton Bowl, he's getting a crack at a Power Four job in Houston. The Big 12 is wide open for the foreseeable future. We don't know which, if any, will emerge as the league's dominant force. But given Fritz's successful history, don't rule out Houston.

At the very least, I expect Fritz will prove to be a better team motivator, and a better gameday coach, than Dana Holgorsen. That will hopefully account for some success this fall.

Some talent is returning as well. Donovan Smith (64.5% completion rate, 2,801 passing yards, 22 TDs and 13 interceptions in 2023) and returns as starting quarterback. Parker Jenkins (464 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on 99 attempts last season) returns at RB, Joseph Manjack (46 receptions for 577 yards and 6 TDs in 2023) returns at wide receiver, and Tank Jenkins returns on the O-line. On the other side of the ball, defensive back A. J. Haulcy, who led the team with 98 tackles last year, and linebacker Jamal Morris return.  

Reasons for Pessimism: Stop me if you've heard this before (last year, in fact!), but both the schedule and significant roster turnover are reasons I think the Cougars are going to struggle in 2024. 

The schedule is going to be brutal; in fact, Phil Steele thinks it's the fifth-toughest in the nation. The new-look Big 12 has five teams ranked in the AP preseason top 25.  The Cougars face four of them, along with former Big 12 powerhouse Oklahoma (now in the SEC). 

As for the roster, there's been a lot of churn: 63 newcomers on this year's team, to be exact. While significant turnover is probably the new normal for every team in the era of the transfer portal, 63 new faces is a lot for the program to absorb. It will take time for the team to find cohesiveness.

Finally, with a new staff comes new philosophies, new schemes and new personalities. While I'm optimistic about Willie Fritz in the longer term, in the shorter term he's going to face struggles while he instills his culture and vision for the program.

What the Computers Think: The Cougars are ranked 78th (out of 134 FBS schools) in ESPN's preseason Football Power Index and their game-by-game matchup predictor gives the Cougars more than a 50% chance of winning only two games: UNLV and Rice. Massey makes the same prediction, as do Sagarin's beginning-of-season ratings (when home field advantage is taken into consideration). The Congrove algorithm is even more pessimistic, predicting a winless season for the Cougars. Ouch!

What the Humans Think: When it comes to the Cougars, not much. The Coogs were picked 15th (out of 16 schools) in the Big 12 preseason media poll. Three of the eight sportswriters at cbssports.com predict that Houston will finish dead last in the Big 12, and only one (Dennis Dodd) thinks they will end the season higher than 13th. Heartland College Sports foresees another 4-8 campaign for the Cougars, while 247sports.com predicts a two-win season. CollegeFootballNews is slightly more optimistic, setting Houston's win total at 5.5, but thinks the only "likely win" is Rice.

What I think: Willie Fritz is by all accounts a good coach, but he's not a miracle worker. He's dealing with a roster that saw a lot of offseason turnover and he's facing a tough schedule. While I hope to see improvement as the season progresses, the team is likely to experience growing pains.

I'm predicting a three-win season, with home victories against UNLV, Rice, and Baylor. 

It probably won't be pretty. Rebuilding years usually aren't. But at least the UH faithful can enjoy the new videoboard and Trill Burgers while they watch the work in progress.