Congratulations to all college football fans, myself included, who have successfully endured another offseason. Now, let the games begin!
Looking Back: The 2025 season was by any measure a success. The Cougars notched a 10-3 record, a bowl win over Louisiana State, and ended their year with a spot on the AP's final top 25.
The Big Story for 2026: Can the Coogs, under third-year head coach Willie Fritz, maintain last season's momentum and have an even more successful 2026 campaign? Can they - dare I say it - even compete for the Big 12 championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff?
Reasons for Optimism: There is lots of continuity from last year's team. Willie Fritz enters his third season as head coach, and offensive coordinator Slade Nagle and defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong return as well. On the field, veteran dual-threat quarterback Conner Weigman returns, as does WR Amare Thomas. They are joined by several highly-rated portal transfers, including RB Makhi Hughes (who transfers in from Oregon and originally played for Willie Fritz at Tulane). Highly-rated incoming freshman QB Keisean Henderson joins the team as well. On the defensive side of the ball, standout linemen Brandon Mack and Latreveon McCutchin return, as do safeties Kentrell Webb and Jordan Allen.
Reasons for Pessimism: There's still a lot of talent lost from last year's team, such as RB Dean Conners and TE Tanner Koziol on the offensive side of the ball, or DE Carlos Allen and CB Latrell McCutchin, Sr from the defense. The coaching staff thinks their portal additions will more than adequately fill in these holes (for example, on the defensive line), but time will tell if these new players pan out and/or successfully to adjust to the philosophy of Fritz and his staff.
The schedule is going to be tough, particularly as it relates to road games. The Cougars have to travel to Lubbock, Manhattan, Salt Lake City, Boulder and Morgantown (those last three likely being cold-weather games) for conference matches. Last year's team found ways to win, going 6-1 in one-possession games. Can they do the same against a more difficult schedule?
What the Computers Think: Congrove's algorithm is especially bullish on Houston, placing them eleventh in their preseason ratings and predicting an 11-1 season. Massey's preseason outlook is more measured, ranking the Coogs #47 to start the season and giving them a 50% or better chance of winning nine games. Jeff Sagarin's preseason ratings start the Cougars at #37 and imply a 9-3 record as well, when home filed advantage is taken into account. The Cougars are ranked 35th (out of 138 FBS teams*) in ESPN's preseason Football Power Index and their game-by-game matchup predictor gives the Cougars more than a 50% chance of winning seven games (with another game - Colorado - being essentially a toss-up).
What the Humans Think: Houston begins the season ranked #23 in the preseason AP poll and #24 in the USA Today Coaches Poll. The Athletic's Stewart Mandel pegs the Cougars to finish second in the Big 12, with a 10-2 overall record, and to make it to the conference championship game; his colleague Chris Vaninni thinks the Coogs start the season as the 19th-best team in the country. "Willie Fritz always figures it out," he writes. R.J. Young at Fox Sports also starts the Coogs out in the #19 spot and says that Fritz is "one of the 10 best living coaches in college football;" he sets Houston's season over-under at 8.5 wins.
ESPN's Bill Connelly predicts the Cougars to come in 7th in the conference with an expected win total of 7.4. He says Fritz "is one of the most underrated coaches of the 21st century" but notes Houston's tough schedule. Connelly's colleague Mark Schlabach has the Cougars 22nd in his preseason power rankings. "With 12 starters coming back, including quarterback Conner Weigman and receiver Amare Thomas, the Cougars might be a sleeper candidate to challenge for the Big 12 title," he writes. On the other hand, ESPN's David Hale believes the Cougars are going to take a step backwards this season, simply because their winning margins were so thin last year.
And that's what I think is going to happen. While I'd obviously love to see the Coogs win a conference championship and CFP appearance, I don't think the program is quite there yet. I predict a 9-3 season for Houston in 2026.
*Sacramento State and North Dakota State join the FBS this year.













