And there is much rejoicing, as college football season has returned.
Looking Back: Houston's first year in the Big 12 was a disappointment, as the team went 4-8 overall and 2-6 in their new conference. Of their four wins, three were decided by a combined total of six points. The Cougars lost to Rice, TCU and Cincinnati teams that all ended their seasons with losing records, and were shut out for the first time since 2000. At the end of the year, the University of Houston had no choice but to admit that their headline-grabbing gamble on Dana Holgorsen was an expensive failure and fire him.
The Big Story for 2024: For the Cougars, it's new head coach Willie Fritz. Fritz has extensive experience at almost every college coaching level and spent the last eight years at Tulane.
Houston changes coaches as college football itself enters a new era: both conference realignment - welcome to the "Power 4" era - and an expanded, 12-team playoff will completely change the sport's landscape in 2024.
Reasons for Optimism: It's hard not to be optimistic about Willie Fritz, who brings a history of success to Houston. Tom Fornelli of cbssports.com explains:
After eight seasons at Tulane, where Fritz went 23-4 the last two years and beat USC in the Cotton Bowl, he's getting a crack at a Power Four job in Houston. The Big 12 is wide open for the foreseeable future. We don't know which, if any, will emerge as the league's dominant force. But given Fritz's successful history, don't rule out Houston.
At the very least, I expect Fritz will prove to be a better team motivator, and a better gameday coach, than Dana Holgorsen. That will hopefully account for some success this fall.
Some talent is returning as well. Donovan Smith (64.5% completion rate, 2,801 passing yards, 22 TDs and 13 interceptions in 2023) and returns as starting quarterback. Parker Jenkins (464 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on 99 attempts last season) returns at RB, Joseph Manjack (46 receptions for 577 yards and 6 TDs in 2023) returns at wide receiver, and Tank Jenkins returns on the O-line. On the other side of the ball, defensive back A. J. Haulcy, who led the team with 98 tackles last year, and linebacker Jamal Morris return.
Reasons for Pessimism: Stop me if you've heard this before (last year, in fact!), but both the schedule and significant roster turnover are reasons I think the Cougars are going to struggle in 2024.
The schedule is going to be brutal; in fact, Phil Steele thinks it's the fifth-toughest in the nation. The new-look Big 12 has five teams ranked in the AP preseason top 25. The Cougars face four of them, along with former Big 12 powerhouse Oklahoma (now in the SEC).
As for the roster, there's been a lot of churn: 63 newcomers on this year's team, to be exact. While significant turnover is probably the new normal for every team in the era of the transfer portal, 63 new faces is a lot for the program to absorb. It will take time for the team to find cohesiveness.
Finally, with a new staff comes new philosophies, new schemes and new personalities. While I'm optimistic about Willie Fritz in the longer term, in the shorter term he's going to face struggles while he instills his culture and vision for the program.
What the Computers Think: The Cougars are ranked 78th (out of 134 FBS schools) in ESPN's preseason Football Power Index and their game-by-game matchup predictor gives the Cougars more than a 50% chance of winning only two games: UNLV and Rice. Massey makes the same prediction, as do Sagarin's beginning-of-season ratings (when home field advantage is taken into consideration). The Congrove algorithm is even more pessimistic, predicting a winless season for the Cougars. Ouch!
What the Humans Think: When it comes to the Cougars, not much. The Coogs were picked 15th (out of 16 schools) in the Big 12 preseason media poll. Three of the eight sportswriters at cbssports.com predict that Houston will finish dead last in the Big 12, and only one (Dennis Dodd) thinks they will end the season higher than 13th. Heartland College Sports foresees another 4-8 campaign for the Cougars, while 247sports.com predicts a two-win season. CollegeFootballNews is slightly more optimistic, setting Houston's win total at 5.5, but thinks the only "likely win" is Rice.
What I think: Willie Fritz is by all accounts a good coach, but he's not a miracle worker. He's dealing with a roster that saw a lot of offseason turnover and he's facing a tough schedule. While I hope to see improvement as the season progresses, the team is likely to experience growing pains.
I'm predicting a three-win season, with home victories against UNLV, Rice, and Baylor.
It probably won't be pretty. Rebuilding years usually aren't. But at least the UH faithful can enjoy the new videoboard and Trill Burgers while they watch the work in progress.
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