2025 Kinder's Texas Bowl: Houston 38, LSU 35

My marriage may be ruined (such is the risk of marrying into an LSU Tiger family), but this was an amazingly fun game. Houston fell behind 0-14 early in the first quarter but rallied, took a ten-point lead, and then withstood a late Bayou Bengal rally of their own to beat the Tigers, 35-38, and win their first bowl game since 2022.

I don't know who made this graphic, but it's very cool

The Good: Houston's offense. All of the people who contributed to the Cougars' resurgent offense over the course of the season played major roles in this win. QB Conner Weigman accumulated 236 yards passing, 56 yards rushing, and threw 4 touchdown passes - a Texas Bowl record - while not being intercepted or sacked once. RB Dean Conners ran for 126 yards, including a 20-yard touchdown scramble. TE Tanner Koziol caught nine passes for 76 yards and a score, while WR Amare Thomas caught seven passes for 66 yards and two touchdowns.

Once the Houston offense got hot, LSU's defense simply didn't have an answer for them. The Cougars ended the game with 437 total yards of offense.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Cougars limited LSU to 77 yards rushing, while notching four sacks and seven tackles for loss. They also forced a key LSU fumble in the second quarter that kept the Tigers from regaining momentum after the Cougars tied things up.

The Tigers threaten to score

The Bad: Houston's pass defense. Playing in place of an injured Garrett Nussmeier, LSU QB Michael Van Buren completed16 of 26 passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns. The Cougars had a tough time containing Tiger TE Trey'Dez Green and WR Kyle Parker, who combined for 11 catches, 146 yards and three touchdowns. Watching the Cougars give up a 46-yard pass on LSU's final possession as they attempted a late rally was especially disheartening

The Ugly: Houston special teams. They began the game by giving up a 99-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to LSU returner Barion Brown. Brown almost got away from the Cougars again on a slippery 43-yard return late in the first half. A Houston kickoff in the second half went out of bounds, drawing a penalty. Finally, LSU came terrifyingly close to recovering their own onside kick attempt late in the game; the Cougar "hands team" didn't seem to be positioned well and simply got lucky.

What It Means: Some LSU fans may discount this game because several key Tiger players sat out, including Nussmeier and former UH safety A. J. Haulcy. But SEC fans can't have it both ways; LSU's remaining talent was top notch, they had the Cougars on the ropes early, and came within a nearly-recovered onside kick of winning or going into overtime. This was a hard-fought, legitimate win for Houston.

The Cougar offense at work

The Coogs end the season with a bowl win over an SEC school, finish with double-digit wins for only the tenth time in program history, and (unless the AP sportswriters are completely out of their minds) should end the 2025 season with a top-25 ranking, If you had read the previous sentence to me back in August, I would have laughed in your face. 

The University of Houston Cougars and Louisiana State University Tigers are now 2-2 all-time, with the tiebreaker game to come at the beginning of the 2027 season. The Cougars' next game is at TDECU Stadium on September 5, 2026, when they host the Oregon State Beavers. 

Pete Fiutak of CollegeFootballNews offers five thoughts about the Texas Bowl, while Mario Punete has some excellent pictures of the game action.

Yes, she was still on speaking terms with me after the game. 

Behold, the Southeasternwest Conference!

As seen on social media:

You could even add former SWC school Rice and former SEC school Tulane to get to an even 24 teams. Doing so would have the added effect of raising the conference's academic profile...

The Great College Crunch

Get ready to see a lot of colleges close their doors in the coming years:

A dwindling number of prospective students will drive as many as 370 private colleges in the US to shutter or merge with another institution in the next decade, according to a major higher-education consulting firm. 

Huron Consulting Group’s prediction is more than triple the total amount of private, nonprofit two- and four-year college closures that the National Center for Education Statistics calculated in the 10 years leading up to 2020.

The shrinking supply of students stems from a falling national birth rate that started in 2007 and hasn’t recovered. The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education estimates that the graduating class of 2041 will be about 13% smaller than the 2025 cohort. 

“Essentially the problem is we have too many seats in too many classrooms and not enough prospective students to fill them,” said Peter Stokes, a managing director at Huron. “Over the next decade, we’re going through a very painful but necessary re-balancing in supply and demand.” 

Since March 2020, at least 83 public or nonprofit colleges have either closed or merged, or have announced plans to do so. A lot of these are smaller religiously-affiliated colleges with enrollments in the hundreds. Some were founded as recently as the 1990s; others, such as Limestone College in South Carolina- my cousin's alma mater - were established back in the mid-1800s. Earlier today, in fact, two universities in North Carolina - Elon University and Queens University - announced their merger. 

As noted in the quote text above, birthrates in the United States peaked in 2007 and have steadily declined since. There are many reasons for this, but the end result is that fewer babies today means fewer college students tomorrow. 

There's an enormous crisis looming for US colleges. pic.twitter.com/xAB7XtyPug

— Hunter📈🌈📊 (@StatisticUrban) September 2, 2025

This decline in native-born enrollment will, furthermore, be accompanied by a decline in international enrollment. The current administration's growing restrictions on international students are already making American schools less attractive (and in many cases completely off limits) to college students abroad. Even if they are reversed by a future administration, they will nevertheless create a chilling effect on international enrollment that may well be permanent. 

Stokes said that schools need to come up with an early game plan to meet enrollment challenges. Colleges can consider diversifying their student populations by growing graduate, professional and part-time programs, for example. 

“If you aren’t thinking five years ahead, you’re at a significant disadvantage,” he said. “If you only have three years of runway, your chances of survival are less than 50%. If you call us when you’ve got nine months of cash, you’re dead in the water and it’s too late.” 

Some schools think that they can attract more students, especially young men, by adding sports programs:

Roanoke is one of about a dozen schools that have added football programs in the last two years, with several more set to do so in 2026. Administrators hope that having a team will increase enrollment, especially of men, whose ranks in college have been falling.

Yet research consistently finds that while enrollment may spike initially, adding football does not produce long-term enrollment gains.

Roanoke's president, Frank Shushok Jr., nonetheless believes that bringing back football — and the various spirit-raising activities that go with it — will attract more students, especially male students.

The small liberal arts college lost nearly 300 students between 2019 and 2022. And things were likely to get worse; the country's population of 18-year-olds is about to decline and colleges everywhere are competing for students from a smaller pool. 

"Do I think adding sports strategically is helping the college maintain its enrollment base? It absolutely has for us," said Shushok.  "And it has in a time when men in particular aren't going to college."

I'm a bit skeptical of this strategy. A lot of those 83 schools I mentioned did have athletics programs, even if at the Division III or NAIA level. Birmingham-Southern University's baseball team famously played in the Division III College World Series after their school had officially shut down. 

A 2024 University of Georgia study examined the effects of adding football on a school's enrollment. It found modest early enrollment spikes compared with comparable colleges that didn't.

"What you see is basically a one-year spike in male enrollment around guys who come to that school to help be part of starting up a team," said Welch Suggs, an associate professor there and the study's lead author. "But then that effect fades out over the next couple of years."

After two years, the researchers found "statistically indistinguishable" differences.

I don't think there's any easy fix to the problem that the nation's colleges and universities are facing because the demographic trends behind it are probably permanent. Administrators simply need to maintain their focus on providing a quality experience (e.g. safe campus, knowledgable faculty, marketable degrees) to their students, ensure that their schools' financials are sound, and accept that not every school is going to make it.

Remembering Lee Corso's F-Bomb

This weekend will be legendary college football coach and commentator Lee Corso's last appearance on ESPN College Gameday. To commemorate the end of the unpredictable 90-year-old analyst's career, ESPN put together a documentary that included this tidbit on one of the most unforgettable moments in College Gameday history, which occurred on the University of Houston campus:

Of course, I was present when it happened, although at the time I didn't hear the actual word.

The University of Houston is currently renovating the plaza in front of the E. Cullen building, where the College Gameday stage was set up. I think as part of the remodeling they should install a commemorative plaque:

Here marks the spot where, on November 19, 2011, during a live broadcast of ESPN College Gameday, Lee Corso said "AW, FUCK IT!" 

2025 Houston Cougar Football Preview

Another college football season is upon us, which means that it's time for me to resume blogging.

Looking Back: There were some bright spots to Willie Fritz's first year at the helm of the Cougar program, including victories over TCU on the road and a ranked Kansas State at home, but the overall result was a 4-8 record for the second straight season. The UH football program has traditionally been known for its offense, but last year that was not the case as Houston finished 133 (out of 134 FBS teams) in scoring, and 128th in total offense.

The Big Story for 2025: Fritz is bringing in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The ineffective Kevin Barbay has been replaced by Slade Nagle, who worked with Fritz at Tulane, as Offensive Coordinator. Defensively, the Cougars were forced to make a change at the coordinator position when Texas Tech hired Shiel Wood away from Cullen Boulevard. Austin Armstrong, previously DC at Florida, takes over.

Reasons for Optimism: Aside from Nagle, the offense itself is seeing an influx of transfer portal talent including highly-ranked QB Conner Weigman (previously at Texas A&M) and TE Tanner Koziol (previously at Ball State), who was the highest-rated tight end in the portal. These and other newcomers join standouts from last season, such as RB Re'Shaun Sanford II and WR Stephon Johnson. Defensive playmakers such as DT Carlos Allen, Jr and LB Brandon Mack return as well.

The schedule also seems a bit more favorable than the one the Cougars faced last season. The Coogs only face two of the five Big 12 teams ranked in either the preseason AP or Coaches poll. UH also gets an opportunity to work out some kinks against an FCS opponent to start the season, a luxury they did not have to start last season.

Reasons for Pessimism: The transfer portal giveth, and the transfer portal taketh away. The defense was Houston's one bright spot in the 2024 season, ending the season 25th in the nation in yards allowed per game, but key defensive players from last year, including safety A.J. Haulcy and cornerback Jeremiah Wilson, transferred out. Their losses will hurt just as much as Wood's departure to Lubbock.

Disastrously poor offensive line play was one of the reasons for the Coogs' struggles on that side of the ball last season. While Fritz and his staff have brought in some transfers to fortify that struggling unit, it remains to be seen if they will be able to effectively protect Weigman or open holes for the ground game.

What the Computers Think: The Cougars are ranked 70th (out of 136 FBS schools*) in ESPN's preseason Football Power Index and their game-by-game matchup predictor gives the Cougars more than a 50% chance of winning only four games (although a fifth game is almost a toss-up). A separate ESPN rating, the SP+, ranks the Cougars #63 and projects 5.8 wins for the Cougars. "After fielding their worst team in 22 years, the Cougs [sic] are natural rebound candidates, especially with top-20 returning production," the article states.

Sagarin's beginning-of-season ratings predict a 6-6 campaign when home field advantage is taken into consideration. Congrove foresees a 6-6 campaign for the Coogs as well. Massey's algorithm is more pessimistic, only giving the Cougars a 50% chance of winning three games this fall. 

What the Humans Think: Chronicle UH beatwriter Joseph Duarte is predicting a 7-5 season for Houston, as are USA Today's Paul Myerberg and Jim Sergent. CollegeFootballNews foresees a 6-6 record for the Cougars (their full preview of the team is here). James Parks of College Football HQ foresees a 6-6 campaign as well. CBSports.com has the Coogs ranked #53 going into the season and thinks they're on track for a Frisco Bowl appearance, which means they foresee at least six victories.

What I think: I think this fall's offense will be better (after all, it can't get much worse than last season), but I think the defense will take a step backward. The schedule is easier than it was a year ago, but is still formidable. There are a lot of new faces on the program - athletes and coordinators alike - so getting everybody to quickly coalesce as a team will be of utmost importance. 

I want to believe that the Cougars can achieve at least six wins and go to a bowl game this fall - that, after all, should be the minimum expectation of Willie Fritz's second season - and will therefore predict a 6-6 regular season for UH. 

But I do so with a bit of trepidation, because the Coogs don't have much margin for error this fall. In order to get to six wins, the Cougars will need to do at least three of the following four things: not suffer any dreaded "Coog It" games at home, overcome a very long road trip to beat Oregon State in Eugene, do what only one other UH team has done in history and beat UCF in Orlando, and/or pull off a significant upset against the likes of Baylor or Texas Tech. None of those things will be easy. Also, of course, the team must stay healthy; Weigman had injury issues at Texas A&M and if he goes down here as well then all bets are off. 

It was obvious that it would take Willie Fritz more than just one season to repair the damage done to the program by Dana Holgorsen. The good news is that Fritz's teams seem to have a history of taking leaps forward during his second season as head coach; hopefully that trend holds up this fall. 

Underdog Dynasty has a thorough preview of the Cougars that is worth a read.

*Missouri State and Delaware are joining the FBS party this fall.

Expanded College Football Playoff Thoughts

The first edition of the 12-team College Football Playoff is in the books, with Ohio State's victory over Notre Dame last Monday bringing the 2024 college football season to a close. I have some thoughts.

Ohio State is legit. I've read grumblings on message boards that the Buckeyes should not have been national champions because they didn't win their conference (so what? Neither did Georgia in 2021 or Alabama in 2017) or because they lost to archival Michigan (so what? They're called rivalry games for a reason). In order to make it through the playoffs and win the title, Ohio State had to beat the #9, #4, #3 and #2-ranked teams in the final AP top 25. If you can pull off that feat, you deserve to be champions. 

It was too long. The playoff began on Friday, December 20; the championship was held a full month later, on Monday, January 20. This is well after the traditional bowl season (which used to reach its climax on New Year's Day) ends and a not-insignificant number of sports fans have moved on to the NFL playoffs or basketball. That may be why the 22.1 million viewers who watched last Monday's title game was less than the 25 million people who watch the 2024 CFP Championship game. Certainly the expanded CFP was not helped by the fact that it ran concurrently with - and had to be scheduled around - the NFL playoffs. But you can't help but wonder if viewer burnout was a factor as well. 

Ideally, the playoff should be shortened. But it won't be easy.

Four teams was too small, but is 12 teams too large? I'm not philosophically opposed to a 12-team playoff - the more teams, the merrier, right? - although I've always argued that eight teams is probably the right number. Given the way the four lowest-seeded teams - Indiana, Tennessee, SMU and Clemson - all got drilled in the first round, you can definitely make the argument that twelve teams is too many. An eight-team playoff would also shave a week off the schedule, at least partially addressing the length issue mentioned above.

That being said, Ohio State was seeded #8. In an eight-team playoff, they probably would not have even made it in because the ACC champ, Clemson, would have been assured a spot instead. So maybe more is better...

The first round home games were awesome. The atmospheres in all of South Bend, Columbus, Happy Valley and Austin were electric and encompassed everything that is good about college football. You almost wish that the four teams that got first-round byes - Boise State, Arizona State, Oregon and Georgia - could have held a playoff game in their home stadiums as well.

The seeding probably needs to be adjusted. Speaking of the aforementioned four teams that got first-round byes: they all lost in the second round (although Arizona State's scrappy battle with Texas in the Peach Bowl will go down as an all-time classic). The reason they got first-round byes was not because they were the best four teams in the playoff, but because they won their conference championships. It certainly makes sense that the teams that win their conferences be rewarded with better playoff seeds, but given that the five conference champions went 0-5 in the playoff, the argument can be made that teams should be seeded based on their overall strength (like the NCAA does for the basketball tournament).

Certainly there are still some tweaks that need to be made to the format, but overall I think the first "real" playoff went well. As a college football fan, I'm just glad that we've finally reached this point. I've lived through the old system of regional bowls and "who should be number one" controversies, the conference commissioners and bowl executives who fought tooth-and-nail to preserve their fiefdoms, the half-assed attempts to determine a "true" college football champion through the goofy Bowl Alliance and the cynically corrupt Bowl Championship Series, and the four-team playoff (which, while a step forward, was still unsatisfactory). At a time where so much is changing in college football, the twelve-team playoff is definitely a change for the better.

CNN's Kyle Feldscher, NBC's Nicole Auerbach, and CBS's Chip Patterson share what they think worked and didn't work from the 12-team playoff format. 

On to the offseason. 

The 1999 Texas-Texas A&M halftime show (and how I got quoted in an ESPN article about it)

The Texas A&M Aggies used to build and set ablaze a bonfire every year before their annual rivalry game against the University of Texas. In 1999, the bonfire collapsed during construction, killing 12 students and injuring 27 more, some seriously. This month not only marks the 25th anniversary of that tragedy, but this weekend the Aggies and Longhorns will meet on the football field for the first time since 2011, renewing their legendary rivalry.

To mark the occasion, ESPN staff writer Dave Wilson penned this article about the halftime show of the 1999 Texas-Texas A&M game, which occurred shortly after the bonfire collapsed and featured a solemn commemoration of the catastrophe and its victims by both the Aggie and Longhorn bands.

When Wilson reached out to me a couple of weekends ago about this game, I at first thought it was a joke. It turns out he had tracked me down based on a YouTube comment I made about the halftime show many years ago. He wanted me to share some memories of the show for his article.

Although I had finished my courses and moved from Austin to Denton several months before, I was still technically enrolled at the University of Texas as a graduate student at the time of the game because I was still completing my thesis (I officially received my Masters Degree in December 1999). I got tickets to the Texas-Texas A&M game for Lori and myself through an Aggie acquaintance of mine a few months beforehand. We drove to College Station from Temple, where my grandmother and aunt lived and where my family ended up gathering for Thanksgiving that year. We were up on the third level of Kyle Field and were probably the only Texas fans in our section.

In the first quarter, the Aggies scored on an interception return for a touchdown, but then the Longhorns blocked the Aggies' extra point attempt and ran it back for two points of their own. Texas scored a pair of touchdowns in the second quarter to lead the game 16-6 at the half.

(Texas Longhorn Band Director Kevin Sedatole) was already concerned with how to manage the rah-rah pageantry of a marching band on such a somber occasion, and he struggled to find a balance.

"The first time that we played 'Texas Fight' was weird," he said. "It felt like we shouldn't really be doing this. But there are also people saying, 'Look, we need to treat this as normal as it can.'"

But the occasion called for more than a standard performance. Sedatole and his counterparts in College Station were all friends, despite their bands being a study in contrasts. Texas' Showband of the Southwest is known for elaborate themed shows, while the Aggie Band is defined by discipline and tradition.

"All of us here have always had a great deal of respect for the Longhorn Band," Dr. Tim Rhea, the current director of the Aggie Band said. "They do what they do extremely well. And I think we do what we do extremely well. They've always been wonderful colleagues for us."

The Longhorn band came out first and ended their show with "Amazing Grace" and "Taps." At the end of the show the entire Texas band took their hats off and quietly walked off the field.

Thomas Gray of Houston, a Texas fan who said he was one of the only Longhorns fans in his section on the third deck, remembers Aggies turning around and thanking him personally.

"I felt weird accepting compliments on their behalf," he said.

In retrospect, maybe "weird" isn't the right word for me to have used because it might come across as ungrateful. The Aggie fans were simply expressing their appreciation to the Longhorn fans nearest to them, which happened to be Lori and me. But it was unexpected, so at the time I was a bit befuddled; I think I simply said "I'm glad you enjoyed the performance" or something to that effect.

Once the Longhorn band was finished, the Aggie Band came out and did their usual precision military march, which ended with them forming a big block "T" and walking off the field in complete silence. The memory I shared in the YouTube comment (and in this blog entry from a few years ago) is the same one I related to Wilson:

"It was so silent that you could hear the spurs clinking on the cadets' boots, even up in the third level," Gray said. "There have only been a few times in my life where the hair on the back of my neck stood up; this was one of them."

Over 86 thousand people were in that stadium. They were all completely silent. It is still astonishing to think about, and it's something I will never forget.

In the second half, the Aggies scored two touchdowns while holding the Longhorns scoreless. Texas A&M sealed the game when they sacked Major Applewhite and forced a fumble with 23 seconds left on the clock. The Aggies won, 20-16.

"We had the thought and memory of those 12 in our hearts and minds every single play," offensive lineman Chris Valletta, who had the names of the victims written on his undershirt, said after the game. "I hope this win can ease the pain a little bit. I personally want to send this to all of them, from all of us."

In 2013, (Texas Head Coach Mack) Brown resigned after 16 years in Austin, and once again showed his respect for the Aggies in his farewell news conference after being asked if there was anything he wished he could've changed during his tenure.

"I would want the bonfire [collapse] to not have happened at A&M," he said. "Playing A&M on Thanksgiving, I thought about the families. ... When you lose your children, there is nothing worse than that in the world. I think about that every Thanksgiving because there are 12 families that don't have a good Thanksgiving. That'll never go away."

I know a lot of Aggies, and I know how seriously they take their traditions. I know how deeply the bonfire collapse affected them. The Aggies to this day have not resumed the bonfire tradition.

I'm grateful that Dave Wilson was able to find me and allow me to share my experience of this somber yet remarkable halftime show with the rest of the world.

2024 Houston Cougar Football Preview

And there is much rejoicing, as college football season has returned.

Looking Back: Houston's first year in the Big 12 was a disappointment, as the team went 4-8 overall and 2-6 in their new conference. Of their four wins, three were decided by a combined total of six points. The Cougars lost to Rice, TCU and Cincinnati teams that all ended their seasons with losing records, and were shut out for the first time since 2000. At the end of the year, the University of Houston had no choice but to admit that their headline-grabbing gamble on Dana Holgorsen was an expensive failure and fire him.

The Big Story for 2024: For the Cougars, it's new head coach Willie Fritz. Fritz has extensive experience at almost every college coaching level and spent the last eight years at Tulane. 

Houston changes coaches as college football itself enters a new era: both conference realignment - welcome to the "Power 4" era - and an expanded, 12-team playoff will completely change the sport's landscape in 2024.

Reasons for Optimism: It's hard not to be optimistic about Willie Fritz, who brings a history of success to Houston. Tom Fornelli of cbssports.com explains:

After eight seasons at Tulane, where Fritz went 23-4 the last two years and beat USC in the Cotton Bowl, he's getting a crack at a Power Four job in Houston. The Big 12 is wide open for the foreseeable future. We don't know which, if any, will emerge as the league's dominant force. But given Fritz's successful history, don't rule out Houston.

At the very least, I expect Fritz will prove to be a better team motivator, and a better gameday coach, than Dana Holgorsen. That will hopefully account for some success this fall.

Some talent is returning as well. Donovan Smith (64.5% completion rate, 2,801 passing yards, 22 TDs and 13 interceptions in 2023) and returns as starting quarterback. Parker Jenkins (464 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on 99 attempts last season) returns at RB, Joseph Manjack (46 receptions for 577 yards and 6 TDs in 2023) returns at wide receiver, and Tank Jenkins returns on the O-line. On the other side of the ball, defensive back A. J. Haulcy, who led the team with 98 tackles last year, and linebacker Jamal Morris return.  

Reasons for Pessimism: Stop me if you've heard this before (last year, in fact!), but both the schedule and significant roster turnover are reasons I think the Cougars are going to struggle in 2024. 

The schedule is going to be brutal; in fact, Phil Steele thinks it's the fifth-toughest in the nation. The new-look Big 12 has five teams ranked in the AP preseason top 25.  The Cougars face four of them, along with former Big 12 powerhouse Oklahoma (now in the SEC). 

As for the roster, there's been a lot of churn: 63 newcomers on this year's team, to be exact. While significant turnover is probably the new normal for every team in the era of the transfer portal, 63 new faces is a lot for the program to absorb. It will take time for the team to find cohesiveness.

Finally, with a new staff comes new philosophies, new schemes and new personalities. While I'm optimistic about Willie Fritz in the longer term, in the shorter term he's going to face struggles while he instills his culture and vision for the program.

What the Computers Think: The Cougars are ranked 78th (out of 134 FBS schools) in ESPN's preseason Football Power Index and their game-by-game matchup predictor gives the Cougars more than a 50% chance of winning only two games: UNLV and Rice. Massey makes the same prediction, as do Sagarin's beginning-of-season ratings (when home field advantage is taken into consideration). The Congrove algorithm is even more pessimistic, predicting a winless season for the Cougars. Ouch!

What the Humans Think: When it comes to the Cougars, not much. The Coogs were picked 15th (out of 16 schools) in the Big 12 preseason media poll. Three of the eight sportswriters at cbssports.com predict that Houston will finish dead last in the Big 12, and only one (Dennis Dodd) thinks they will end the season higher than 13th. Heartland College Sports foresees another 4-8 campaign for the Cougars, while 247sports.com predicts a two-win season. CollegeFootballNews is slightly more optimistic, setting Houston's win total at 5.5, but thinks the only "likely win" is Rice.

What I think: Willie Fritz is by all accounts a good coach, but he's not a miracle worker. He's dealing with a roster that saw a lot of offseason turnover and he's facing a tough schedule. While I hope to see improvement as the season progresses, the team is likely to experience growing pains.

I'm predicting a three-win season, with home victories against UNLV, Rice, and Baylor. 

It probably won't be pretty. Rebuilding years usually aren't. But at least the UH faithful can enjoy the new videoboard and Trill Burgers while they watch the work in progress.

College football's viewership imbalance

This graphic has been making the rounds on X (I will never stop calling it Twitter) over the past couple of weeks, and it is equal parts fascinating and concerning:

Over the past eight college football seasons, fully half of the sport's television viewership has been generated by just 18 teams. And all of those teams, with the exception of Clemson, Notre Dame and Florida State, either are, or as of this fall will be, members of the SEC or Big 10.

There's probably a feedback loop here. Networks figure that college football fans want to see these teams, so they are on TV more often, which means that more people end up watching them, even if only casually. These ratings also include College Football Playoff games as well as regular season and other bowl games, which gives an additional ratings boost to multi-year CFP participants like Alabama, Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State. But the resulting concentration of viewership is still stark.

The next five most-watched schools on this graphic were Texas A&M, Michigan State, Iowa, Oklahoma State, and TCU. In other words, you have to go outside the top 20 before you find any Big 12 schools. It's also interesting that historic powerhouses like Nebraska and Miami are absent, but both schools are a long way away from their dominance in the '80s and '90s (the Cornhuskers currently being on a streak of seven losing seasons in a row). 

I also, sadly, suspect that Houston sits among that bottom 10% on the right side of the graph.

The fact that so much college football viewership (and therefore, television revenue) is concentrated in so few schools, and that those schools mostly belong to two conferences, means that college football finds itself in an extremely unbalanced situation between the "Power Two" (the SEC and the Big 10) and everyone else (the ACC, the Big 12 and the Group of Five conferences). This has significant implications for the sport's future.

In that regard, last Friday's news that the SEC and Big 10 are "creating a joint advisory group of university presidents, chancellors and athletics directors to address the turmoil enveloping the (college football) industry" is raising some eyebrows among college football fans. Could the SEC and Big 10 be preparing to break away and create their own college football league, apart from the NCAA? It would completely change the sport as we know it, and not (in my opinion) for the better.

I love college football, but between this imbalance, the out-of-control transfer portal, and a completely-unregulated NIL system, the sport is simply not sustainable in its current form, and I worry for its future.

2023 Houston Cougar Football Preview

The 2023 college football season begins in the shadow of ongoing conference realignment madness. Just today it was confirmed that Stanford, Cal and SMU will be joining the ACC next season. So yes, next year there will be California schools in the Atlantic Coast Conference. It doesn't make much sense, but that's where the sport is today, for better or for worse.

The churn of conference realignment means that the Cougars will be playing in a new home this season: the Big 12. It's a step upward for the program, but it will probably come with some growing pains.

Looking Back: A season that began with promise (the Cougars began the season in the top 25) ended in mediocrity, with a 7-5 record (two games worse than my prediction of a nine-win regular season) and a victory over Louisiana-Lafayette in the Independence Bowl. 

While I'll take the winning season and bowl trophy, the 2022 campaign was nevertheless a disappointment. The defense struggled (the Cougars ended the season 104th out of 130 FBS teams in total defense and 111th in scoring defense), the offense was plagued with sluggish starts (the Coogs were held scoreless in the first quarter 7 times in 13 games), and the team as a whole was undisciplined (124th in penalty yards per game). 

The Big Story for 2023: The Cougars have spent the better part of three decades wandering in the wilderness since the Southwest Conference broke up in 1995. Now, they rejoin the premier ranks of college football as a member of a (now) "Power Four" conference. Gone are conference mates with little regional appeal like Temple, East Carolina and Tulsa. In their stead are old SWC foes such as Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech and (for one season, at least) Texas, an even older Missouri Valley Conference foe in Oklahoma State, and interesting new opponents like West Virginia and Kansas State.

With this step up in prestige comes a step up in competition, and the Cougars need to prove that they belong. 

Reasons for Optimism: There's been a lot of roster turnover but there's definitely some talent on this team. Texas Tech transfer Donovan Smith will take over as quarterback; he is already well-known to UH fans since he converted a 4th-and-20 against the Cougars last season. He'll have a strong wide receiving corps to work with, as Matthew Golden (38 catches for 584 yards and 7 TDs a year ago) and Joseph Manchack return; they will be joined by a couple of transfers. Stacy Sneed and Brandon Campbell, who combined for almost 1000 rushing yards last season, return in the backfield and are joined by West Virginia transfer Tony Mathis, Jr. The offensive line returns NFL-caliber talent in OT Patrick Paul, as well as a new coach in Eman Naghavi, who spent last season at Tulane.

The defensive line is going to be formidable. DE Nelson Ceaser may be best defensive player on the team; he'll be joined by DE David Ugwoegbu and DT Chidozie Nwankwo. Linebackers will be anchored by senior leader Hasaan Hypolite (31 tackles at safety last year) and Jamal Morris (42 tackles). Alex Hogan returns at DB.

There's also a bit of an advantage in the schedule, as Houston plays eight games in the City of Houston and only leaves the State of Texas twice.

Reasons for Pessimism: Where to begin? To start with, the schedule is much tougher than anything the Cougars have faced in recent memory. With an upgrade in conferences comes an upgrade in opponents; three of Houston's opponents are ranked in the preseason AP poll (and four in the coaches' poll).

There's also that issue of roster turnover. Major contributors to last year's team are gone: QB Clayton Tune, WR Tank Dell (who led the nation in receiving yards and receiving TDs last season), LB Donavan Mutin and DL Derek Parish have all moved on to the NFL, while RB Alton McCaskill, who sat out the 2022 season with an injury but was expected to return as the team's offensive workhorse this season, transferred to Colorado. There are over 40 new players on the roster this season, and it's going to take time for them to gel.

Finally, there's head coach Dana Holgorsen, whose performance up to this point has been underwhelming. Yeah, there was that 12-2 season two years ago against a butter-soft schedule, but last year his team underachieved. Why should he be expected to do better this season against better competition?

What the Computers Think: Massey gives the Cougars a greater than 50% chance of winning only three games. Jeff Sagarin's starting ratings for the 2023 season imply a 5-7 record for the Cougars with home field advantage taken into account (and three of those wins are marginal). ESPN's Football Power Index, likewise, foresees a 5-7 season for the Coogs. Congrove is a bit more bullish on Houston, predicting a 7-5 campaign.

What the Humans Think: Houston was picked to finish 12th (out of 14 teams) in the Big 12 Media Preseason Poll, ahead of only Cincinnati and West Virginia. USA Today's Erick Smith has the Cougars finishing 13th in the conference, while the writers at CBS Sports see the Coogs finishing anywhere from 9th to 14th. CollegeFootballNews foresees a 5-7 season record for Houston.

What I Think: While I'm happy that the Cougars finally find themselves among the "haves" of the college football world and look forward to new and rekindled rivalries in the Big 12, I just don't think that their first season among the big boys will be a particularly good one: the Cougars need to pay their dues.

I'm am predicting a 4-8 season record for the Cougars, with wins against UTSA, Rice and Sam Houston, and a single conference win over Holgorsen's former employer, West Virginia, on a nationally-televised Thursday night. But even then I'm not all that confident about those games; quite frankly. there isn't a game on the schedule that the Cougars can't lose. 

Dana Holgorsen and his players know that expectations for the program are low, and they relish being the underdog. Which is great. But after watching his overall underperformance during his four years at Houston, I'm skeptical of his ability to get these players to reach their potential. This fall would be as good a time as any to prove me wrong.

Houston begins the season tomorrow at home against Texas-San Antonio. Vegas actually has the Roadrunners slightly favored in this one, and we all remember what happened the last time UTSA came to TDECU Stadium.

Realignment time again

Remember during the last round of college sports conference realignment, when I told you not to worry if you didn't like where your favorite school ended up "because we'll probably be doing this again in a few years?" Well, it hasn't even been two years, and here we are again. 

Two weeks ago, the most radical - and sudden - realignment in college football history occurred, wherein a “Power 5” conference with over 100 years of history was essentially dismantled over the course of a couple of days. The Pac-12, which was already facing the losses of USC and UCLA following the 2023 season, saw five of its schools depart for other conferences after a meeting to sign a conference media rights deal fell apart at the last moment. The 2023-24 sports year will be the venerable Pac-12's last in its current configuration, and likely for good.

The Pac-12: disappearing in 2024

As sudden as this was, it was not entirely unexpected. Rumors that Washington and Oregon would join the Big 10 and that the “Four Corners” schools of Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah would join the Big 12 had been floating around the online college sports world for months. Once it became clear that Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff could not land a media rights deal that would satisfy his conference's members, the inevitable happened and the rumors became reality. These departures - reluctant as they might have been - left the Pac-12 with only four schools: California, Stanford, Oregon State and Washington State. 

The waters churned in the Pac-12 breakup's wake. Last week, it appeared that Cal, Stanford and even SMU were headed to the ACC, even as schools already in that conference like Florida State were looking for a way out. The ACC seems to be standing pat for now, but that could change at any moment (especially since their television contract isn't as advantageous as those of the SEC and Big Ten). Meanwhile, the fate of Cal, Stanford, Oregon State and Wazzou remains unresolved and will likely involve adding or joining schools in the Mountain West or American Athletic Conferences. That in turn, will cause more dominoes to fall. Things are still in flux, and even as the 2023 football season gets underway we have no idea what the conference lineup for 2024 is going to look like.

There's plenty of blame for the demise of the Pac-12, starting with the folks who run the Pac-12 itself, as the San Francisco Chronicle's Connor Letournau explains:

A complete failure of leadership pushed the Pac-12 to this point. By overvaluing their product, showing a stunning lack of urgency and refusing to adapt with the times, league decision-makers reduced the West Coast’s premier conference to four castoffs. The eight teams that departed over the past 13 months weren’t merely opportunists; they identified the problem.

Though Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff has made his share of costly blunders since taking the job three years ago, his predecessor, Larry Scott, deserves much of the blame for the league’s predicament. Before he signed a historic 12-year, $3 billion TV deal with Fox and ESPN in spring 2011, he failed to add an escape clause.

That locked in the Pac-12 until 2024, which left it vulnerable to having its teams poached by Power 5 conferences with bigger subsequent annual media-rights payouts. By inking a TV deal in spring 2016 that lasted just six years, the Big Ten positioned itself to beat the Pac-12 back to negotiations and, ultimately, convince UCLA and USC to come aboard. Those two defections last summer set the Pac-12 on its current trajectory.

Scott’s biggest misstep was the Pac-12 Networks, which didn’t come close to realizing their billing as a cutting-edge enterprise that would serve as an industry standard-bearer. Instead of partnering with a proven media company like ESPN, Scott launched a network fully owned by the schools in summer 2012, complete with an odd seven-channel model that confused consumers.

The Pac-12 Networks struggled to find distribution. Without ever approaching the revenue Scott had projected, it is now considered an albatross that weighs down the remaining league members’ bottom lines.

More recently, the conference apparently turned down a television rights deal worth $30 million per school, because they thought they deserved more. The media disagreed, leaving the Pac-12 to scramble, ultimately unsuccessfully, for another media rights deal. 

In that regard, blame also needs to be laid at the feet of the television networks, who are willing to destroy college football's regional tradition as long as it means new conferences with more marquee matchups that attract more viewers. The conference commissioners and university presidents chasing after those television dollars are also culpable. Everybody will try to avoid blame for the Pac-12's demise, but everybody is responsible. (A great Twitter X thread by a University of Michigan regent slams the NCAA for failing to do its job as the supposed oversight body for college sports.)

As a college football fan, I find this latest round of realignment to be rather bizarre. In what world does it make sense for a school in Eugene, Oregon to be in the same conference as one from Piscataway, New Jersey? How are student-athletes, especially those playing non-revenue sports such as volleyball or soccer, supposed to balance their studies with the cross-country travel (and attendant jetlag) that these mega-conferences will entail? 

Furthermore, having been a student at the University of Houston when the Southwest Conference disintegrated and Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Baylor went to join the Big XII while the Cougars, along with Rice, TCU and SMU, got shunted off to “mid-major” leagues like C-USA and the WAC, I can't help but feel bad for the folks at Cal, Stanford, Oregon State and Washington State who are almost certainly looking at a future in the "Group of 5" world. I know what this feels like: a gut-punch; a betrayal. (It should also strike fear in the hearts of administrators at "second-tier" Power 5 schools like Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Indiana and Wake Forest. Next time, it could be them.)

With that said, I'm selfishly grateful that Houston was able to make the jump from the Group of 5 "have-nots" to the (now) Power 4 "haves." In being admitted to the Big 12 right before this latest round of realignment occurred, Houston may have gotten on the "last chopper out," so to speak. 

The new Big 12: appearing in 2024

I'm also excited about the new Big XII, which will actually be a collection of 16 teams in the summer of 2024, when Texas and Oklahoma depart for the SEC and the "Four Corners" schools come aboard. (Confused? ESPN's College Football Realignment Tracker can help you follow along.) It's going to be a fairly evenly-matched conference, lacking a "big dog" school like Alabama or Georgia or Michigan or Ohio State that will win it more often than not. It will feature traditional rivalries like the Holy War and the Territorial Cup. And it will be, hands down, the best mens basketball conference in the NCAA.

Until, of course, the next round of realignment occurs and the conference's lineup changes again.

In that regard, it truly isn't difficult to argue that realignment is killing college sports. Add it to NIL and the transfer portal, and it also isn't difficult to argue that college football is truly becoming professionalized. The Washington Post's Kevin Blackistone thinks that, since college football is now "virtually indistinguishable from the NFL," it's time for colleges and their football programs to go their separate ways:

There are now too many irreconcilable differences between the not-for-profit college mission and for-profit football. It's time to get on with the divorce.

I don't believe college football has attained the NFL's level just yet. But that may, sadly, be where the sport is headed.

I'll have my preview of the 2023 UH football season up in another week or so.

UH wins and attendance, 2022

The 2022 college football season ended on a rather anticlimactic note last week, as Georgia completely embarrassed TCU to win its second-consecutive national title. Now that the season is over, its time to update my wins-versus-attendance graph:

The Cougars averaged 24,793 fans per game during the 2022 season, which is a slight decrease - 280 fans/game - from their 2021 average. I had originally expected the program's 10-win season in 2021 to result in an attendance bump for 2022, and indeed, over 30 thousand tickets were sold for Houston's home opener against Kansas. However, the Cougars performed very poorly in that game - it was their second loss in a row  - and interest in the program dwindled. By the time the Coogs hosted Tulsa to close the regular season, an attendance of only 21,785 was announced, with the actual number of people in the seats being much, much smaller. 

Ticket sales are likely to increase this fall because the Cougars are joining the Big 12 and local fans and ticket brokers alike will likely be interested to see Houston host schools such as Texas Tech, the aforementioned TCU, and (if rumors are correct) the Texas Longhorns. Non-conference opponents Texas-San Antonio and Sam Houston State will also bring a good continent of fans. 

Whether the Cougars can win any of those games, however, is a different story. Given last season's disappointment and head coach Dana Holgorsen's apparent refusal to make any adjustments to his coaching staff over the offseason, I'm not optimistic.

The 2023 schedule should be released by the end of the month.

College Football Playoff Expansion

Last summer I wondered if the College Football Playoff might expand from its current four-team format. At the time, it seemed almost inevitable. Then, earlier this year, the brakes got pumped on the concept when the powers that control the sport couldn't come to a unanimous agreement about what an expanded playoff would look like. Last Friday, however, an agreement about playoff expansion was finally reached:

The College Football Playoff's board of managers unanimously voted Friday to expand the CFP to 12 teams in 2026 but is encouraging the sport's commissioners to try to implement it as soon as 2024.

In what was described as "an historic day for college football," the board's 11 presidents and chancellors approved the original 12-team model, which was first made public last summer and includes the six highest-ranked conference champions and six at-large teams, the board announced.

That fact that the six highest-ranked conference champions will be included in the format guarantees that at least one team from the so-called "Group of Five" schools will participate in the playoff every season. Teams will continue to be ranked by the CFP selection committee, which itself probably needs reform, but at least under this model the greatest injustice of the the college football playoff - the exclusion of deserving Group of Five schools - is mitigated. 

The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded one through four with each receiving a first-round bye. Teams seeded five through 12 will play each other in the first round on either the second or third weekend of December. The quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in bowl games on a rotating basis, and the championship game will be at a neutral site, as under the current four-team format.

"This is an exciting day for the future of college football," SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said in a statement. "As originally proposed, the 12-team playoff creates more access for teams and conferences across the country to compete in college football's championship event. There is work to be done to make this format a reality, but I am pleased we are all moving in the same direction with a common purpose."

While there are still details to be worked out (and discussions on potentially implementing the format as early as 2024 are set to begin this week), playoff expansion will be good for the sport. It will make the playoff more interesting by virtue of the fact that three times as many teams are participating, and it will hopefully reduce the trend of NFL-bound players "opting out" of inconsequential bowl games as well. Of course, it will also produce a lot of new revenue for the sport.

Granted, most of that revenue is going to be hoovered up by the Power Five conferences; in fact, Power Five schools (and Notre Dame if it is ranked high enough) are likely to occupy 11 of the 12 postseason berths during most seasons. The dominance of programs like Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State is unlikely to abate, either. But the fact that at least one Group of Five school will have a seat at the postseason table means that any school playing FBS football will now - at least in theory - have a shot at the national title. That makes the sport more equitable than it has been in the past, and reduces the disparity between the "haves" and "have nots" of the sport.

As a fan of one of those schools that was on the "outside looking in" of the College Football Playoff (and its predecessor, the Bowl Championship Series) for so long, I'm glad we've finally reached this point (even if Houston will be a member of a Power Five conference by the time this expansion occurs). It honestly should have happened a long time ago.

The Houston Press's Sean Pendergast thinks playoff expansion will stabilize conference realignment and prevent conferences like the SEC and Big Ten from creating their own league. CFN's Pete Fiutak says expansion will be good for the sport, while ESPN staffers try to answer some lingering questions about expansion. SI's Ross Dellenger inventories the issues that still need to be resolved before expansion occurs.

2022 Houston Cougar Football Preview

Before I go into the preview, I want to say a word about the summer's bombshell news about UCLA and USC joining the Big Ten in 2024. The fact that this move makes no geographic sense is beside the point; today, conference realignment is all about money (as evidenced by the Big Ten's new TV deal). 

This quest for ever-greater revenue streams has reached the point that the sport is cannibalizing itself:

Inequity has always existed in college athletics, particularly in football, the highest-profile sport. But this latest transfer of power widens the divide between the haves and have-nots. The Big Ten and the Southeastern Conference (SEC) already stand apart as the two most lucrative leagues in college sports. They will continue their not-so-secret arms race. Eventually, the rest of the college conferences—even the once-mighty Pac-12—may either go extinct or just end up competing for scraps.

When Texas and Oklahoma, now with the Big 12, join the SEC in either 2024 or 2025, the SEC and the Big Ten will each have 16 universities. Nine of the 10 schools with the highest athletic revenue in the 2019–20 fiscal year will be members of either the SEC or the Big Ten. The two conferences include the most dominant brands in college football: Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia, to name a few.

Over a decade ago, I wrote about the lamentable trend towards an elite "superconference" of 64 schools that would break off from the rest of college football. Now, it looks like this superconference might only consist of the schools of the Big Ten and the SEC, plus a lucky few extras (e.g. Clemson, Notre Dame, etc.) that are eventually invited into the exclusive club.

Houston, of course, is one of four schools joining the Big 12 next season; it remains to be seen how USC and UCLA's move will affect the Big 12 in general or the Cougars in particular. There was initially some talk about a quartet of Pac-12 schools - Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah - leaving the now-crippled Pac-12 for the Big 12, but no movement has occurred as of yet. It's only a matter of time, however, before the next round of conference realignment begins (remember when I told everybody that they wouldn't have to wait very long for it?) 

Between this, NIL money, the transfer portal, and other recent changes, the sport of college football is definitely changing, and not in a direction I as a fan like to see it go. The sport is suffering from a lack of leadership: the NCAA has effectively been emasculated, and college football is now essentially controlled by TV networks, conference commissioners and university presidents who are more concerned with money grabs than they are the long-term greater good of the sport or its student-athletes. 

With that said, it's time to focus on the 2022 season at hand, and worry about the future of college football later.

Looking Back: after the Cougars' season-opening loss to Texas Tech at NRG Stadium, I was ready for head coach Dana Holgorsen to be fired. However, the $4 million coach redeemed himself from there, as his team rattled off eleven straight wins before falling to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. Houston then went on to defeat Auburn in the Birmingham Bowl and end the season with a #17 final ranking in both the AP and Coaches polls.

The Big Story for 2022: this is Houston's final year in the American Athletic Conference. They'd like to go out with a conference title; furthermore, they'd like to enter the Big XII in 2023 with some swagger. Can the Coogs build on last season's success and generate momentum moving forward?

Reasons for Optimism: Quarterback Clayton Tune had a breakout season in 2021, and he and WR Nathaniel "Tank" Dell are probably the best pass-and-catch combo in the conference. In addition to Dell, Tune will have his choice of targets, including experienced tight end Christian Trahan and a slew of wide receiver transfers with experience from Power five schools. Ta'Zhawn Henry, who was the Coogs' second-leading rusher last season with 524 yards and seven touchdowns, will start at running back. 

Houston returns several starters from a defense that ranked sixth in the nation in total defense last season, including defensive linemen D’Anthony Jones and Derek Parish who combined for 12 sacks and 20.5 tackles for loss last year. The linebacking corps is anchored by Donavan Mutin, who led the team with 77 tackles a year ago. Veteran cornerbacks Gervarrius Owens and Hasaan Hypolite return to lead the secondary. The defense's most important returnee, however, is Defensive Coordinator Doug Belk, whose success leading the Houston defense is causing his name to be mentioned as a future head coaching candidate.

There's also the schedule, which Ryan Monceaux calls "as soft as squeeze butter." The Coogs' opponents went a combined 64-84 last season, and Houston avoids Central Florida and Cincinnati for the second straight year.

Reasons for Pessimism: The Cougars have to replace a lot of talent from last year's team that has been lost to injury or the NFL draft. RB Alton McCaskill, who ran for almost 1,000 yards last season, suffered a torn ACL during offseason practice and is out for the season. On defense, the Cougars have to replace key players who are now playing on Sundays, including Logan Hall and David Anenih on the defensive line, and Marcus Jones and Damarion Williams in the secondary. Jones, of course, was also a game changer for the Cougars as kick returner. 

An offensive line that wasn't all that great last season - they allowed 38 sacks - has to replace three starters as well. 

While these losses bother Brad Towns, his biggest concern is that the schedule, while weak, is still stronger than last year's (which is something I noted as well):

As bad as this year’s schedule is, and it’s plenty bad, last season was even worse. UH trades Grambling for UTSA, Tech on the road vs. in Houston, and Kansas for UConn. Kansas is not good, but they aren’t UConn bad. And that leads me to my biggest concern.

Despite the lousy schedule, several games in 2021 were way too close for comfort. There was an 8-point home win over 4-8 Navy, when UH didn’t take the go-ahead lead in the 4th qtr. A two-win Tulane team was within 4 points going into the 4th quarter before UH pulled away. It took overtime to beat ECU at home. UH needed a walk-off kick return to beat SMU at home. USF, a two-win team, cut UH’s lead to five with 4 minutes to go. Memphis was within a score in the 4th qtr at TDECU Stadium before UH sealed the win with less than 4 minutes to go.

Navy, ECU, SMU, and Memphis are on the road this year (along with Texas Tech and UTSA). None of those teams are great, and I expect the Coogs to beat them all. But funny things can happen on the road.

While Brad still expects a 10-2 season, he "wouldn’t be shocked if the outcome was 8-4 and a Whocares Bowl appearance."

What the Computers Think: Congrove's preseason algorithm predicts an 11-1 season for the Cougars, Massey gives the Cougars a greater than 50% chance of winning ten games, and ESPN's FPI gives the Coogs a 50% or greater chance to win nine games. When the home-field advantage is taken into account, Sagarin's preseason ratings imply an undefeated season for UH.

What the Humans Think: Houston is ranked #24 in both the preseason AP and Coaches polls. The Cougars were also picked to be conference champions in the AAC preseason media poll, just edging out Cincinnati (who actually received more first-place votes). Athlon, who ranks Houston in their top 25, opines that the "Cougars aren't done" building on last season's success and, given their manageable schedule, "could challenge for the AAC title and New Year’s Six bowl." ESPN puts Houston 24th in its preseason power rankings, while CBS Sports puts Houston 22nd in its beginning-of-season poll (four out of seven CBS Sports writers also predict the Cougars to win the conference). College Football News foresees a ten-win regular season for Houston (read their full preview), while fansided's John Buhler predicts a 12-0 regular season, an AAC conference championship and a Cotton Bowl appearance for UH. 

What I think: While I think the Cougars are poised to have a good season, I fear that there might be a bit of a step back in 2022. The schedule, while still easy, is incrementally harder than last year, and the team has to replace some key talent from last year's team (Marcus Jones, of course, is irreplaceable). The injury to Alton McCaskill is a huge setback, and I'm still worried about the offensive line. 

While an undefeated, conference championship-winning season is certainly possible, it is more likely that the Cougars experience a few road bumps along the way, as up-and-comers and transfers grow into their roles and as opposing AAC programs give the exiting Coogs their last, best shot. 

I am predicting a 9-3 record, with losses coming against any three of Texas-San Antonio, Texas Tech, Memphis or SMU on the road. That record probably won't be good enough for a conference title, but a bowl win on that gets them to ten wins and puts them on respectable footing going into the Big XII.

Cougars defeat Auburn in TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl, end season ranked #17

The Houston Cougars ended the 2021 football season on a high note two weeks ago by defeating the Auburn Tigers in Birmingham, 17-13. The bowl victory results in a 12-2 season for the Coogs, as well as a #17 ranking in both the AP and Coaches polls. 

The Good: QB Clayton Tune passed for 283 yards and two touchdowns: one to Alton McCaskill on the first series of the game, and another to Jake Herslow in the fourth quarter to take the lead for good. Although he didn't score any touchdowns, Nathaniel Dell was clutch his 150-yard receiving performance that included four third down conversions and one fourth down conversion. Kicker Dalton Witherspoon contributed by nailing a 52-yard field goal. 

But this game was a defensive struggle, so praise must be given to a Cougar defense that flustered Auburn's offense all afternoon. They allowed only one touchdown, recorded seven tackles for loss, and limited the Tigers to 4 of 15 third-down conversion attempts and only one of three fourth down conversion attempts. 

The Bad: The Cougars threw two interceptions and otherwise sputtered at times, scoring only three points in the second and third quarters and converting only 6 of 14 third-down conversion attempts. The UH defense forced no turnovers of their own and had trouble containing Auburn RB Tank Bigsby, who amassed a combined 164 rushing and receiving yards. In fact, Auburn might actually had won the game if they had kept giving the ball to Bigsby instead of trying to pass the ball on short-yardage situations.

The Stupid: One of Houston's two interceptions was the result of a gimmick play whereby Tune lateraled to TE Seth Green, who then attempted to throw back to Tune in double coverage. That kind of trickery was completely unnecessary in a grind-it-out game such as this. Fortunately, Auburn could not convert either of its interceptions into points.

The Pleasantly Surprising: Auburn fans. Given that we were in "enemy territory" - the crowd was easily 90% Auburn - we were ready to receive some heckling, if not outright hostility, from the opposing fans. However,  every Auburn fan we encountered was very nice. They asked us sincere questions about our quarterback and our schedule, and they all congratulated us afterwards. Very classy!

What it means: Yes, Auburn had a bunch of players missing due to injury, opt-out, or (in two cases during the game) ejections for targeting. Yes, the Coogs may have gotten a little bit of help from the refs (an obvious intentional grounding call on Tune was ignored). Yes, Auburn might have made things easier on Houston by insisting on passing the ball when it would have made more sense to give it to Bigsby. But none of that should detract from the fact that the Cougars defeated an SEC blueblood, despite giving up two turnovers, in front of what was basically a home Auburn crowd. This win was a huge accomplishment for the program and an excellent end to a surprisingly good season.

With the win, the Cougars snap a four-game bowl losing streak; they are now 12-16-1 all-time in bowl games. They end the season ranked for only the 15th time in program history and as one of only two Texas teams to be ranked. And they rather convincingly blew my preseason prediction of a 7-5 season out of the water.

Underdog Dynasty's Steve Helwick recaps the bowl game and assigns end-of-season grades to the Cougars.  Dave Campbell's Texas Football provides its own review of the Coogs' 2021 season and suggests that "Houston should be considered the favorite to win the AAC in 2022." ESPN's Mark Schlabach ranks UH #13 on his "way too early" top 25 for 2022, and Paper City's Chris Baldwin sums things up thus: 

For now, UH beating an SEC team in its own homeland is another important step forward. Soon, it just might be expected.

Houston will begin the 2022 season in San Antonio, when they face the UTSA Roadrunners in the Alamodome on Labor Day weekend. The full 2022 schedule should be out within the next couple of months. 

Finally, congratulations to Georgia for winning their first national championship since 1980.

Conference realignment follow-up: Conference USA survives

Following up on my post from a few weeks ago: it appears as if the dust has settled and the current flurry of collegiate conference realignment (which is driven primarily by football but affects all sports) has come to an end. At least for now.

The big question in this most recent round of realignment - the survival of Conference USA as a viable FBS football entity - seems to have been resolved. The beleaguered conference was first able to avoid further predations by other conferences, after the Mid-American Conference decided not to invite current C-USA members Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky to join. C-USA then issued invitations to current FBS independents New Mexico State and Liberty, as well as FCS programs Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State. Those invitations were accepted, and those schools will join what will be a nine-team conference - stretching from Lynchburg, Virginia to Las Cruces, New Mexico - in time for the 2023 season. 

The first two additions make sense. While Liberty University is a highly problematic institution, its athletics program is competitive. While New Mexico State's football program is moribund, its mens basketball program is decent (7 tournament appearances in the last decade) and it provides a travel partner for current C-USA member UTEP. Most importantly, both Liberty and NMSU are established FBS football programs. 

Sam Houston State and Jacksonville State (in Jacksonville, Alabama, and not to be confused with my wife's alma mater in Jacksonville, Florida), on the other hand, are not. Both these programs are highly successful at their current level - the Bearkats are reigning FCS champions, and JSU recently gained notoriety by upsetting Florida State - and that, along with the fact that both schools fill geographic gaps for C-USA, are likely why they were offered invitations. But the move to FBS comes with significant commitments - scholarships, salaries, travel - that both schools will need to make. 

The Huntsville Item's Colton Foster thinks SHSU's move "seems like a reach for the program, with major hurdles" such as finances, attendance and facilities that SHSU will have to overcome in order to be competitive in Conference USA. For one thing, the Bearkats will have to compete for recruits and television sets in a crowded FBS neighborhood: Texas A&M is only 50 miles to the west of Huntsville, and Houston and Rice are both 70 miles to the south. 

Conference USA was also apparently courted by two other independents - Massachusetts and Connecticut - but no invitations have been extended to either school. Geography is likely a factor, as is the fact that both schools wanted to be football-only members. One can only imagine how UConn might be regretting their decision to leave the American Athletic Conference a few years ago. 

Old Dominion, on the other hand, seems very pleased about their new home in the Sun Belt (which is probably the biggest winner of this round), while a Rice Thresher article explains why the Owls' move to the American is good for that program. ESPN has updated its college football realignment tracker for those trying to make sense out of this latest shift in the college sports landscape. 

And if you don't like where your school ended up, don't worry: we'll probably be doing this again in a few years.