The Great College Crunch

Get ready to see a lot of colleges close their doors in the coming years:

A dwindling number of prospective students will drive as many as 370 private colleges in the US to shutter or merge with another institution in the next decade, according to a major higher-education consulting firm. 

Huron Consulting Group’s prediction is more than triple the total amount of private, nonprofit two- and four-year college closures that the National Center for Education Statistics calculated in the 10 years leading up to 2020.

The shrinking supply of students stems from a falling national birth rate that started in 2007 and hasn’t recovered. The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education estimates that the graduating class of 2041 will be about 13% smaller than the 2025 cohort. 

“Essentially the problem is we have too many seats in too many classrooms and not enough prospective students to fill them,” said Peter Stokes, a managing director at Huron. “Over the next decade, we’re going through a very painful but necessary re-balancing in supply and demand.” 

Since March 2020, at least 83 public or nonprofit colleges have either closed or merged, or have announced plans to do so. A lot of these are smaller religiously-affiliated colleges with enrollments in the hundreds. Some were founded as recently as the 1990s; others, such as Limestone College in South Carolina- my cousin's alma mater - were established back in the mid-1800s. Earlier today, in fact, two universities in North Carolina - Elon University and Queens University - announced their merger. 

As noted in the quote text above, birthrates in the United States peaked in 2007 and have steadily declined since. There are many reasons for this, but the end result is that fewer babies today means fewer college students tomorrow. 

There's an enormous crisis looming for US colleges. pic.twitter.com/xAB7XtyPug

— Hunter📈🌈📊 (@StatisticUrban) September 2, 2025

This decline in native-born enrollment will, furthermore, be accompanied by a decline in international enrollment. The current administration's growing restrictions on international students are already making American schools less attractive (and in many cases completely off limits) to college students abroad. Even if they are reversed by a future administration, they will nevertheless create a chilling effect on international enrollment that may well be permanent. 

Stokes said that schools need to come up with an early game plan to meet enrollment challenges. Colleges can consider diversifying their student populations by growing graduate, professional and part-time programs, for example. 

“If you aren’t thinking five years ahead, you’re at a significant disadvantage,” he said. “If you only have three years of runway, your chances of survival are less than 50%. If you call us when you’ve got nine months of cash, you’re dead in the water and it’s too late.” 

Some schools think that they can attract more students, especially young men, by adding sports programs:

Roanoke is one of about a dozen schools that have added football programs in the last two years, with several more set to do so in 2026. Administrators hope that having a team will increase enrollment, especially of men, whose ranks in college have been falling.

Yet research consistently finds that while enrollment may spike initially, adding football does not produce long-term enrollment gains.

Roanoke's president, Frank Shushok Jr., nonetheless believes that bringing back football — and the various spirit-raising activities that go with it — will attract more students, especially male students.

The small liberal arts college lost nearly 300 students between 2019 and 2022. And things were likely to get worse; the country's population of 18-year-olds is about to decline and colleges everywhere are competing for students from a smaller pool. 

"Do I think adding sports strategically is helping the college maintain its enrollment base? It absolutely has for us," said Shushok.  "And it has in a time when men in particular aren't going to college."

I'm a bit skeptical of this strategy. A lot of those 83 schools I mentioned did have athletics programs, even if at the Division III or NAIA level. Birmingham-Southern University's baseball team famously played in the Division III College World Series after their school had officially shut down. 

A 2024 University of Georgia study examined the effects of adding football on a school's enrollment. It found modest early enrollment spikes compared with comparable colleges that didn't.

"What you see is basically a one-year spike in male enrollment around guys who come to that school to help be part of starting up a team," said Welch Suggs, an associate professor there and the study's lead author. "But then that effect fades out over the next couple of years."

After two years, the researchers found "statistically indistinguishable" differences.

I don't think there's any easy fix to the problem that the nation's colleges and universities are facing because the demographic trends behind it are probably permanent. Administrators simply need to maintain their focus on providing a quality experience (e.g. safe campus, knowledgable faculty, marketable degrees) to their students, ensure that their schools' financials are sound, and accept that not every school is going to make it.