Even though I don't live in Austin, I'm in regular contact with a large number of people who do. So I'm surprised I hadn't heard about the "Rainy Street Ripper" before I read this article:
After years of speculation and international headlines, a new study by Texas State University criminologists and the Austin Police Department has concluded the “Rainey Street Ripper” — a purported serial killer targeting Austin men on the edges of Lady Bird Lake — isn’t real.
Since 2018, at least 21 bodies have been pulled from Lady Bird Lake, which was still known as "Town Lake" when I lived in Austin and is basically a wide part of the Colorado River near downtown. A certain segment of the population believes these drownings are the result of a serial killer; naturally, they've used social media to express and promote this supposition.
Despite the spread of the theory online, Austin police have for years remained consistent that there was no evidence of a serial killer. Now, Texas State’s study has concluded the same — that there is “neither direct evidence nor indirect warning signs of a serial murderer.”
Texas State’s Center for Geospatial Intelligence and Investigation analyzed 189 drowning cases from 2004 to 2025, and the report found they match historical patterns and the average risk of drowning in a growing city the size of Austin.
“The theory that a serial killer is drowning men from Austin’s Rainey Street District has been advanced by social and mainstream media for over two years now,” the study’s authors wrote. “Much of this coverage has criticized the failure of authorities to recognize the threat of a violent offender. But while police must properly respond to the risk of a predator, it is also important they not waste limited resources pursuing a criminal who does not exist.”
To nobody's surprise, Rainy Street Ripper true believers weren't having it:
In the comments section for the Statesman’s story on Instagram, dozens of people remained unconvinced. In fact, the majority of the nearly 100 comments expressed an unwillingness to believe the new study — and a reassertion of the conspiracy that police might themselves be involved.
“That’s because it’s a cop,” wrote @lamandamb. In just five hours, more than 200 people had liked her comment.
“We have investigated ourselves and determined we’ve done nothing wrong,” wrote @3lucyd.
“That’s because the call is coming from inside the house,” wrote @justbaugh.
On X, @BaronVnOttomatc wrote, “Of course, that’s what they want you to believe.”
Others wrote “Sure, Jan…” or posted the meme from “The Brady Bunch.”
In KXAN’s Instagram comments, the tone was much the same.
“I’m not saying this doesn’t make sense, but I am saying that throughout history, police and city officials have deliberately lied about a serial killer in order to not cause a panic,” wrote @mr.silveira98.
“I’m not buying what you’re sellin sir,” wrote @csnively. Others referenced the show “Dexter,” the series about a blood splatter expert who solves murders — and also commits them.
These commenters didn't just direct their ire at the Austin Police Department; they also accused the Texas State researchers of a cover-up or, worse yet, being in on the murders:
As @JeffOnVacation wrote on Blue Sky, “So, the ‘Rainey Street Ripper’ works at Texas State.” That same sentiment was shared by @wise_sarcasm on Threads, who wrote, “Murderer must have just started classes at Texas state this fall.”
It's impossible to know how many of these comments were made by Rainy Street Ripper true believers and how many came from trolls and bots; in fact, I'm not sure it even matters. It's just more evidence of the jaw-droppingly stupid era we currently live in, where mistrust in institutions such as law enforcement and academia is at an all-time low, and misinformation and public anxiety can be effortlessly spread by social media. It also doesn't help that tabloids and propaganda networks help spread this nonsense:
The authors also noted that news reporting on the story, particularly by Fox News and The Daily Mail, had been both sensational and reliant upon “the opinions of unqualified experts and others who ignored due diligence,” with too little attention paid “to the dangers of revictimization of family members” of the people killed in the drownings.
“These fabrications have costs in the real world, wasting valuable resources that could be deployed to help solve actual crimes,” said the study. “To provide perspective, the cost of a serial murder investigation is typically in the tens of millions of dollars. Currently, Texas has 23,000 cold case homicides — actual crimes that have not been solved.”
The cost of this conspiracy theory isn't only in the law enforcement resources being dedicated to investigate it; it's also the very real possibility that a Rainy Street Ripper true believer might decide to become a vigilante, harassing anybody around Lady Bird Lake they think might be the murderer (and potentially causing violence, à la the Comet Ping Pong shooter, in the process) or, worse yet, that a lonely, mentally disturbed person sitting in their apartment might consume this bullshit and be inspired to become the Rainy Street Ripper themselves.
But none of these potential consequences matter to conspiracy theorists; they cling to their delusions because they think it's what makes them different than the rest of us "sheeple." Which is why the Rainy Street Ripper will continue to be invoked every time some dumbass gets drunk on Sixth Street, decides to go for a swim in the wee hours of the morning, and drowns.
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