The Great College Crunch

Get ready to see a lot of colleges close their doors in the coming years:

A dwindling number of prospective students will drive as many as 370 private colleges in the US to shutter or merge with another institution in the next decade, according to a major higher-education consulting firm. 

Huron Consulting Group’s prediction is more than triple the total amount of private, nonprofit two- and four-year college closures that the National Center for Education Statistics calculated in the 10 years leading up to 2020.

The shrinking supply of students stems from a falling national birth rate that started in 2007 and hasn’t recovered. The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education estimates that the graduating class of 2041 will be about 13% smaller than the 2025 cohort. 

“Essentially the problem is we have too many seats in too many classrooms and not enough prospective students to fill them,” said Peter Stokes, a managing director at Huron. “Over the next decade, we’re going through a very painful but necessary re-balancing in supply and demand.” 

Since March 2020, at least 83 public or nonprofit colleges have either closed or merged, or have announced plans to do so. A lot of these are smaller religiously-affiliated colleges with enrollments in the hundreds. Some were founded as recently as the 1990s; others, such as Limestone College in South Carolina- my cousin's alma mater - were established back in the mid-1800s. Earlier today, in fact, two universities in North Carolina - Elon University and Queens University - announced their merger. 

As noted in the quote text above, birthrates in the United States peaked in 2007 and have steadily declined since. There are many reasons for this, but the end result is that fewer babies today means fewer college students tomorrow. 

There's an enormous crisis looming for US colleges. pic.twitter.com/xAB7XtyPug

— Hunter📈🌈📊 (@StatisticUrban) September 2, 2025

This decline in native-born enrollment will, furthermore, be accompanied by a decline in international enrollment. The current administration's growing restrictions on international students are already making American schools less attractive (and in many cases completely off limits) to college students abroad. Even if they are reversed by a future administration, they will nevertheless create a chilling effect on international enrollment that may well be permanent. 

Stokes said that schools need to come up with an early game plan to meet enrollment challenges. Colleges can consider diversifying their student populations by growing graduate, professional and part-time programs, for example. 

“If you aren’t thinking five years ahead, you’re at a significant disadvantage,” he said. “If you only have three years of runway, your chances of survival are less than 50%. If you call us when you’ve got nine months of cash, you’re dead in the water and it’s too late.” 

Some schools think that they can attract more students, especially young men, by adding sports programs:

Roanoke is one of about a dozen schools that have added football programs in the last two years, with several more set to do so in 2026. Administrators hope that having a team will increase enrollment, especially of men, whose ranks in college have been falling.

Yet research consistently finds that while enrollment may spike initially, adding football does not produce long-term enrollment gains.

Roanoke's president, Frank Shushok Jr., nonetheless believes that bringing back football — and the various spirit-raising activities that go with it — will attract more students, especially male students.

The small liberal arts college lost nearly 300 students between 2019 and 2022. And things were likely to get worse; the country's population of 18-year-olds is about to decline and colleges everywhere are competing for students from a smaller pool. 

"Do I think adding sports strategically is helping the college maintain its enrollment base? It absolutely has for us," said Shushok.  "And it has in a time when men in particular aren't going to college."

I'm a bit skeptical of this strategy. A lot of those 83 schools I mentioned did have athletics programs, even if at the Division III or NAIA level. Birmingham-Southern University's baseball team famously played in the Division III College World Series after their school had officially shut down. 

A 2024 University of Georgia study examined the effects of adding football on a school's enrollment. It found modest early enrollment spikes compared with comparable colleges that didn't.

"What you see is basically a one-year spike in male enrollment around guys who come to that school to help be part of starting up a team," said Welch Suggs, an associate professor there and the study's lead author. "But then that effect fades out over the next couple of years."

After two years, the researchers found "statistically indistinguishable" differences.

I don't think there's any easy fix to the problem that the nation's colleges and universities are facing because the demographic trends behind it are probably permanent. Administrators simply need to maintain their focus on providing a quality experience (e.g. safe campus, knowledgable faculty, marketable degrees) to their students, ensure that their schools' financials are sound, and accept that not every school is going to make it.

Houston 36, Colorado 20

Last Friday evening, the Cougars notched a dominating win over Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes before 37,899 fans at TDECU Stadium. 

The Good: Kicker Ethan Sanchez was the game MVP, accounting for half of the Coogs' 36 points. Sanchez was 5 of 6 on field goal attempts, hitting from 35, 43, 47, 49 and 52 yards and providing the Houston offense with much-needed morale boosts when their drives didn't quite reach the endzone. Sanchez was also 3 for 3 on extra point attempts. 

The Better: The Coogs ran the ball effectively, rolling up 209 yards against the Buffalo defense. QB Conor Weigman picked up 83 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries, RB Dean Conners added another 89 yards and a touchdown on 2 carries, and RB Stacy Sneed chipped in for 35 yards of his own. Add the ground yardage to the 222 yards the Cougars accumulated through the air, and the result was the Houston's first game with more than 400 total yards in total offense in over two years. 

The Best: UH's defense continues to be outstanding. It stymied Colorado's offense, forcing five Buffalo 3-and-outs as well as a turnover on downs, intercepting CU QB Ryan Staub twice, sacking him three times, and tallying seven tackles for loss. 

What It Means: Houston sits at a perfect 3-0 though the first quarter of the season, and the UH faithful can't help but feel good about where this team is headed. Meanwhile, CBS Sports's Shehan Jeyarajah wonders if Colorado's "Prime Time" has come to an abrupt end.

The Cougars get a well-timed week off before traveling to Corvallis, Oregon to face the Oregon State Beavers.

Houston 35, Rice 9

After a sluggish start, the Cougars rallied to win the latest (and last, for a while) edition of the Bayou Bucket. 

The Good, Part I: Rice students were upset that RB Dean Connors transferred from their school to Houston over the summer, so they chanted "FUCK DEAN CONNORS" every time he touched the ball. The chant continued until about forty seconds before halftime, when Connors broke through the Rice defense to score on a 54-yard touchdown run. The Rice student section became very quiet from then on. Connors would add another touchdown to his total in the second half and ended the evening with 132 yards on 13 carries.

The Good, Part II: The Houston defense continues to impress, limiting the Owls' re-vamped option offense to 205 yards and a lone touchdown. The defense tallied three sacks and eight tackles for loss, and Will James intercepted a Rice pass and ran it back 37 yards for a pick six. Through two games, the Cougar D has given up a total of nine points - something no UH team has done since the late '80s.

The Bad: The UH offense looked awful in the first half. The Cougars could get nothing going offensively, gaining a meager 64 yards before Connors' touchdown right before halftime gave them the spark they needed. The Cougars looked better in the second half, but Houston's passing game continues to underwhelm. Take way his 74-yard touchdown pass to Boogie Johnson in the fourth quarter, and Weigman was a mediocre 14-of-21 for 114 yards on the night; he was also sacked three times.

What It Means: The Cougars are now 2-0 for the first time since the 2018 season. They also lead the overall series with Rice, 35-12, as it enters a period of hiatus. It's unclear at this time when, or even if, the series will resume. 

Ryan thinks that the Bayou Bucket needs to end because it's not a "real" rivalry; the schools have little in common other than the fact that they are close to each other. I'm not sure I agree, but I do accept his premise that, now that they are in the Big 12, the Cougars need to schedule as many home games as possible, and giving a game away to Rice every other year is not in the financial best interests of the UH program. 

Next up for the Coogs is an interesting Friday night game at TDECU Stadium, as Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes come to town.

Houston 27, Stephen F. Austin 0

The Houston Cougars start the year with a shutout.

The Good: For all the concern that the defense would take a step backwards after losing defensive coordinator Shiel Wood and several key players from last year's team, they were dominant against SFA. They held the Lumberjacks to 144 total yards of offense, intercepted them twice (and dropped at least two additional picks) and, most importantly, kept SFA from putting any points on the board. You can't ask your defense to do more than that, even against an FCS program.

On the offensive side of the ball, transfer TE Tanner Koziol was as good as advertised, leading all receivers with seven catches for 63 yards and a touchdown. QB Conner Weigman performed acceptably in his first start for the Coogs, completing 15 of 24 passes for 159 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.

The Bad: The offensive line. In spite of being completely overhauled during the offseason, the O-line's struggles continued, especially in run blocking situations. They allowed eight tackles for loss, and one Houston possession ended in a turnover on downs because the Cougars couldn't gain one measly yard on either 3rd or 4th down.... against an FCS defense. 

Between poor O-line play and receivers who failed to get open or otherwise weren't on the same page as Weigman, the offense sputtered for much of the night. Seven Cougar drives ended in punts (five of which were 3-and-outs).

The Horrible: Although originally expected to start, RB Re'Shaun Sanford did not take the field last Thursday. After the game it was discovered that he had undergone knee surgery the day before the game, ending his season before it even began. With his loss, the Cougars are without a key piece of their ground attack.

What It Means: Should UH faithful be concerned that the offense only managed to score 27 points against an FCS opponent? Or should they remember that an offense with so many new faces (coordinator included) is going to be a work in progress at the beginning of the season? Both things can be true, and I expect improvement from here.

Next up for the Cougars is a short trip west to play Rice, in what might be the last edition of the Bayou Bucket for a while.

Underdog Dynasty has more on the Coogs' season opener.

Conspiracy theorists upset that serial killer doesn't exist

Even though I don't live in Austin, I'm in regular contact with a large number of people who do. So I'm surprised I hadn't heard about the "Rainy Street Ripper" before I read this article:

After years of speculation and international headlines, a new study by Texas State University criminologists and the Austin Police Department has concluded the “Rainey Street Ripper” — a purported serial killer targeting Austin men on the edges of Lady Bird Lake — isn’t real.

Since 2018, at least 21 bodies have been pulled from Lady Bird Lake, which was still known as "Town Lake" when I lived in Austin and is basically a wide part of the Colorado River near downtown. A certain segment of the population believes these drownings are the result of a serial killer; naturally, they've used social media to express and promote this supposition.

Despite the spread of the theory online, Austin police have for years remained consistent that there was no evidence of a serial killer. Now, Texas State’s study has concluded the same — that there is “neither direct evidence nor indirect warning signs of a serial murderer.” 

Texas State’s Center for Geospatial Intelligence and Investigation analyzed 189 drowning cases from 2004 to 2025, and the report found they match historical patterns and the average risk of drowning in a growing city the size of Austin.

“The theory that a serial killer is drowning men from Austin’s Rainey Street District has been advanced by social and mainstream media for over two years now,” the study’s authors wrote. “Much of this coverage has criticized the failure of authorities to recognize the threat of a violent offender. But while police must properly respond to the risk of a predator, it is also important they not waste limited resources pursuing a criminal who does not exist.”

To nobody's surprise, Rainy Street Ripper true believers weren't having it:

In the comments section for the Statesman’s story on Instagram, dozens of people remained unconvinced. In fact, the majority of the nearly 100 comments expressed an unwillingness to believe the new study — and a reassertion of the conspiracy that police might themselves be involved.

“That’s because it’s a cop,” wrote @lamandamb. In just five hours, more than 200 people had liked her comment.

“We have investigated ourselves and determined we’ve done nothing wrong,” wrote @3lucyd. 

“That’s because the call is coming from inside the house,” wrote @justbaugh. 

On X, @BaronVnOttomatc wrote, “Of course, that’s what they want you to believe.”

Others wrote “Sure, Jan…” or posted the meme from “The Brady Bunch.”

In KXAN’s Instagram comments, the tone was much the same.

“I’m not saying this doesn’t make sense, but I am saying that throughout history, police and city officials have deliberately lied about a serial killer in order to not cause a panic,” wrote @mr.silveira98.

“I’m not buying what you’re sellin sir,” wrote @csnively. Others referenced the show “Dexter,” the series about a blood splatter expert who solves murders — and also commits them.

These commenters didn't just direct their ire at the Austin Police Department; they also accused the Texas State researchers of a cover-up or, worse yet, being in on the murders:

As @JeffOnVacation wrote on Blue Sky, “So, the ‘Rainey Street Ripper’ works at Texas State.” That same sentiment was shared by @wise_sarcasm on Threads, who wrote, “Murderer must have just started classes at Texas state this fall.”

It's impossible to know how many of these comments were made by Rainy Street Ripper true believers and how many came from trolls and bots; in fact, I'm not sure it even matters. It's just more evidence of the jaw-droppingly stupid era we currently live in, where mistrust in institutions such as law enforcement and academia is at an all-time low, and misinformation and public anxiety can be effortlessly spread by social media. It also doesn't help that tabloids and propaganda networks help spread this nonsense:

The authors also noted that news reporting on the story, particularly by Fox News and The Daily Mail, had been both sensational and reliant upon “the opinions of unqualified experts and others who ignored due diligence,” with too little attention paid “to the dangers of revictimization of family members” of the people killed in the drownings.

“These fabrications have costs in the real world, wasting valuable resources that could be deployed to help solve actual crimes,” said the study. “To provide perspective, the cost of a serial murder investigation is typically in the tens of millions of dollars. Currently, Texas has 23,000 cold case homicides — actual crimes that have not been solved.”

The cost of this conspiracy theory isn't only in the law enforcement resources being dedicated to investigate it; it's also the very real possibility that a Rainy Street Ripper true believer might decide to become a vigilante, harassing anybody around Lady Bird Lake they think might be the murderer (and potentially causing violence, à la the Comet Ping Pong shooter, in the process) or, worse yet, that a lonely, mentally disturbed person sitting in their apartment might consume this bullshit and be inspired to become the Rainy Street Ripper themselves.

But none of these potential consequences matter to conspiracy theorists; they cling to their delusions because they think it's what makes them different than the rest of us "sheeple." Which is why the Rainy Street Ripper will continue to be invoked every time some dumbass gets drunk on Sixth Street, decides to go for a swim in the wee hours of the morning, and drowns.