Another college football season is upon us, which means that it's time for me to resume blogging.
Looking Back: There were some bright spots to Willie Fritz's first year at the helm of the Cougar program, including victories over TCU on the road and a ranked Kansas State at home, but the overall result was a 4-8 record for the second straight season. The UH football program has traditionally been known for its offense, but last year that was not the case as Houston finished 133 (out of 134 FBS teams) in scoring, and 128th in total offense.
The Big Story for 2025: Fritz is bringing in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The ineffective Kevin Barbay has been replaced by Slade Nagle, who worked with Fritz at Tulane, as Offensive Coordinator. Defensively, the Cougars were forced to make a change at the coordinator position when Texas Tech hired Shiel Wood away from Cullen Boulevard. Austin Armstrong, previously DC at Florida, takes over.
Reasons for Optimism: Aside from Nagle, the offense itself is seeing an influx of transfer portal talent including highly-ranked QB Conner Weigman (previously at Texas A&M) and TE Tanner Koziol (previously at Ball State), who was the highest-rated tight end in the portal. These and other newcomers join standouts from last season, such as RB Re'Shaun Sanford II and WR Stephon Johnson. Defensive playmakers such as DT Carlos Allen, Jr and LB Brandon Mack return as well.
The schedule also seems a bit more favorable than the one the Cougars faced last season. The Coogs only face two of the five Big 12 teams ranked in either the preseason AP or Coaches poll. UH also gets an opportunity to work out some kinks against an FCS opponent to start the season, a luxury they did not have to start last season.
Reasons for Pessimism: The transfer portal giveth, and the transfer portal taketh away. The defense was Houston's one bright spot in the 2024 season, ending the season 25th in the nation in yards allowed per game, but key defensive players from last year, including safety A.J. Haulcy and cornerback Jeremiah Wilson, transferred out. Their losses will hurt just as much as Wood's departure to Lubbock.
Disastrously poor offensive line play was one of the reasons for the Coogs' struggles on that side of the ball last season. While Fritz and his staff have brought in some transfers to fortify that struggling unit, it remains to be seen if they will be able to effectively protect Weigman or open holes for the ground game.
What the Computers Think: The Cougars are ranked 70th (out of 136 FBS schools*) in ESPN's preseason Football Power Index and their game-by-game matchup predictor gives the Cougars more than a 50% chance of winning only four games (although a fifth game is almost a toss-up). A separate ESPN rating, the SP+, ranks the Cougars #63 and projects 5.8 wins for the Cougars. "After fielding their worst team in 22 years, the Cougs [sic] are natural rebound candidates, especially with top-20 returning production," the article states.
Sagarin's beginning-of-season ratings predict a 6-6 campaign when home field advantage is taken into consideration. Congrove foresees a 6-6 campaign for the Coogs as well. Massey's algorithm is more pessimistic, only giving the Cougars a 50% chance of winning three games this fall.
What the Humans Think: Chronicle UH beatwriter Joseph Duarte is predicting a 7-5 season for Houston, as are USA Today's Paul Myerberg and Jim Sergent. CollegeFootballNews foresees a 6-6 record for the Cougars (their full preview of the team is here). James Parks of College Football HQ foresees a 6-6 campaign as well. CBSports.com has the Coogs ranked #53 going into the season and thinks they're on track for a Frisco Bowl appearance, which means they foresee at least six victories.
What I think: I think this fall's offense will be better (after all, it can't get much worse than last season), but I think the defense will take a step backward. The schedule is easier than it was a year ago, but is still formidable. There are a lot of new faces on the program - athletes and coordinators alike - so getting everybody to quickly coalesce as a team will be of utmost importance.
I want to believe that the Cougars can achieve at least six wins and go to a bowl game this fall - that, after all, should be the minimum expectation of Willie Fritz's second season - and will therefore predict a 6-6 regular season for UH.
But I do so with a bit of trepidation, because the Coogs don't have much margin for error this fall. In order to get to six wins, the Cougars will need to do at least three of the following four things: not suffer any dreaded "Coog It" games at home, overcome a very long road trip to beat Oregon State in Eugene, do what only one other UH team has done in history and beat UCF in Orlando, and/or pull off a significant upset against the likes of Baylor or Texas Tech. None of those things will be easy. Also, of course, the team must stay healthy; Weigman had injury issues at Texas A&M and if he goes down here as well then all bets are off.
It was obvious that it would take Willie Fritz more than just one season to repair the damage done to the program by Dana Holgorsen. The good news is that Fritz's teams seem to have a history of taking leaps forward during his second season as head coach; hopefully that trend holds up this fall.
Underdog Dynasty has a thorough preview of the Cougars that is worth a read.
*Missouri State and Delaware are joining the FBS party this fall.
