The complicated relationship between Coronavirus and toilet paper

Years from now, when we look back at our current Coronavirus pandemic, we will remember it for many reasons: the "stay at home" orders, the parents pressed into service as homeschoolers, the overburdened hospitals, the ever-rising death toll, the shuttered economy, the utter incompetence emanating from the White House, and the sudden scarcity of toilet paper:

The problem, like the virus that spawned it, is global. In Australia, a cafe began accepting rolls of TP as payment — a cup of coffee will run you three rolls. In Hong Kong, armed crooks held up a supermarket; all they took was 600 rolls of the soft stuff. A pet store in Dornburg, Germany, last week set up an outdoor toilet paper drive-through in a parking lot when the owner was able to obtain a massive shipment. 

Nothing seems to be unspooling in the right direction for a commodity that rarely gets much attention: In Hutchins, Tex., a tractor-trailer hauling a full load of toilet paper crashed and burned last week on Interstate 20. Rolls, most charred or reduced to cinders, splayed all over, shutting down the roadway. 

Demand is as flush as supply is bare. Americans have spent $1.4 billion on toilet paper in the past four weeks, a 102 percent increase from the same period a year before, according to data collected by IRI, which tracks retail sales based on the bar codes on products. (Prices have been quite stable over that time.) Only hand sanitizers, disinfectant wipes and the like have seen substantially bigger sales boosts. 

But toward the end of March, TP sales plummeted because the supply just wasn’t there. 

Of all the things to hoard during a viral pandemic, why toilet paper? The reasons are actually rather simple:

1. People know that they will be making fewer trips to the store during the pandemic, so they want to stock up.

2. People are wiping their bottom-parts almost exclusively at home now, rather than at work, or at restaurants and bars and stadiums, which results in an obvious over-demand for home supply:

Collectively, we probably still use the same amount of toilet paper as we did before the pandemic, but suddenly, we’re expected to use more of our own supply. Most people are no longer eating out at restaurants or going to work or school — places where we conveniently use the restroom and the available toilet paper. Georgia-Pacific estimates that the average American household will use about 40 percent more toilet paper than usual if people spend all their time at home. 

As Will Oremus reported for Medium, the toilet paper industry is divided into two markets: consumer (the likes of Quilted Northern, Charmin, or Cottonelle that you use at home) and commercial (bulky rolls of thin, scratchy paper you find in public restrooms). Most toilet paper manufacturers aren’t sure when consumer toilet paper supplies will be “back to normal” because, well, the situation isn’t normal. Businesses, workplaces, schools, and other public spaces that used to order commercial toilet paper have no need for it, while consumer demand has significantly increased. 

Suppliers have to shift gears as demand for consumer toilet paper outweighs that of the commercial sector, but it’s not a simple task. The products are entirely different, down to size and packaging. “Shifting to retail channels would require new relationships and contracts between suppliers, distributors, and stores; different formats for packaging and shipping; new trucking routes — all for a bulky product with lean profit margins,” Oremus reported.

As it turns out, the "toilet paper supply chain" is a real thing, and one that we normally think about. But it's under a lot of stress right now, for a lot of reasons, and it might be scarce for while.

Happy wiping.