Looking Back: When we last left the Cougars, they had just gotten utterly obliterated by Army, 14-70, in the Armed Forces bowl. The historically embarrassing loss - the Coogs' fourth out of the last five games of the seasons - subsequently resulted in a coaching change for the program, as Major Applewhite was fired and Dana Holgerson hired away from West Virginia to become Houston's newest head coach.
The Big Story for 2019: See above. The Cougars have a new head coach, one which they poached from a so-called "Power Five" school. Holgerson has a history at Houston, having previously been offensive coordinator here before serving as head coach for the Mountaineers.
Reasons for Optimism: A highly-qualified new coaching staff aside, the Coogs return a ton of talent of offense. Quarterback D'Eriq King is healthy again and hopes to top his 3,000 yard, 36-touchdown passing performance of a year ago. He has plenty of targets; most of last season's receiving corps returns, including Marquez Stevenson (who caught 75 passes for 1,019 yards and nine TDs last season) and Keith Corbin (who caught 40). King will also do his part on the ground, although veteran running backs Patrick Carr and Mulbah Car should be getting a fair amount of carries as well. Provided the offensive line can do its part and there are no major injuries (always a concern), the Coogs have the skill players to be one of the best offenses in the country.
Some talent also returns on the defensive side of the ball: defensive end Isiah Chambers returns from a knee injury that prematurely ended his season, and linebackers Leroy Godrey and David Anenih return as well. Gleson Sprewell and Deontay Anderson, who both had busy seasons at safety last year, also return.
Reasons for Pessimism: Those players aside, the fact is that last year's defense was one of the worst in the nation and statistically the worst in program history. Much of what little talent it did possess from last season - eight starters, including Ed Oliver and Austin Robinson - has departed. While the defense will receive an influx of JUCO and transfer talent, and while new defensive coordinator Dan Cauthen is an exponential upgrade over the incompetent charlatan that was Mike D'Onofrio, it's likely going to take more to make up for last season's disaster. This is especially true for the defensive line and at cornerback. Depth is an issue across the board.
As for as much skill is on the offensive side of the ball, the fact is that the Coogs are one D'Eriq King injury away from utter devastation. Will an offensive line that had major issues last year, culminating in giving up ten sacks in the bowl game to Army, be able to protect him?
There's also the schedule: not only is it much tougher overall than last season's, but it also starts off in brutal fashion. The Coogs play four games in nineteen days, including a road game against #4 Oklahoma and a not-quite-home game against #23 Washington State. There are back-to-back roadies against an improving Tulane team and a North Texas program that could win C-USA this season. Houston plays #17 Central Florida on the road, and has extremely tough home contests against Cincinnati and Memphis.
What the Humans Think: At least a few coaches cast ballots for the Coogs in the USA Today preseason poll; they received three votes. The AP sportswriters weren't as generous, although the AAC sportswriters picked the Coogs to finish second in the West Division, behind Memphis.
CBS Sports ranks the Cougars #37 to start the season; their sportswriters all have the Coogs finishing either first or second in the AAC West division and a couple of them even think they'll be conference champions. Althon ranks the Coogs #55 to start the season and expects them to complete the season with an 8-4 record (they also think that D'Eriq King is among the top ten best starting quarterbacks in the country). College Football News, likewise, ranks UH #55 to begin the season and is especially bullish with a prediction of a ten-win campaign - and a AAC West title - for 2019. Sports Illustrated actually thinks the Houston is a Group of Five team that could crack the top ten this fall.
SBNation, on the other hand, expects the Cougars to notch a 6-6 season. The SWC Roundup, whose comprehensive preview is worth reading in full, foresees a 7-5 season for UH. Special props to them for this gem about last year's defense:
The defense, with a slew of NFL caliber athletes, including a generational top ten pick, couldn’t squash a grape. We can now officially coin a new phrase in our lexicon, “D’Onofrio’d” - to be so Cottonelle soft that you draw defeat from the warm bosom of victory. Let us use it in a sentence: “Remember that time Houston put 49 on Temple but got D’Onofrio’d by 10?”What the Computers Think: ESPN's FPI puts no faith in the Cougars; its probabilistic forecast indicates a 4-8 record for UH. Massey's probabilities are only slightly better, suggesting a 6-6 season. Sagarin's preseason rankings suggest an 8-4 campaign when opponent rankings and home field advantage are taken into account, while Congrove expects the Cougars to go 5-7 in 2019.
What I think: While Dana Holgerson is obviously an upgrade over the hapless Major Applewhite, it's going to take a lot more than a coaching change for the Cougars to become competitive again. Espeically considering just how awful they were on defense last season. Combine that with a brutal schedule, and I think the Coogs are going to take a step backwards, at least in the win-loss column, this fall.
They will be absolutely destroyed by a revenge-minded Oklahoma on the road (hopefully the Coogs will get out of Norman without significant injuries) and be bested by Washington State at NRG. They will lose at least one of their back-to-back road games against Tulane and North Texas. They will lose on the road to UCF and at home to Memphis. The end result will be a 6-6 season for the Cougars.
National pundits who criticized Applewhite's firing and Holgerson's hiring will no doubt squeal with glee at such as result, but they'll also be missing the point. Dana Holgerson has a tough rebuilding job ahead of him against a much tougher schedule than the Coogs have played in the recent past. Improvement will not be measured in the win-loss column as it will through other metrics; namely, do the players and positions generally show improvement as the season progresses, are the players being motivated and coached to the best of their abilities, and (most importantly) are the Coogs able to beat the teams they are supposed to beat? If the answer to these questions at the end of the season is "yes," then it will have been a success regardless of the number of wins, and there will be much reason for optimism for the program going forward.
Finally, 2019 will mark the 150th anniversary of the College game. Dennis Dodd reflects on this milestone:
The game turns 150 this year at the height of its popularity. Consider that college football started in the Ulysses S. Grant administration. It didn't recognize a formal champion for 67 years (1936, the beginning of the wire service era). It didn't decide a champion on the field until 62 years after that (1998, the BCS era). It has survived World Wars, scandals and scores of deaths that have put the game itself in peril. In 1869, Clemson as a city wouldn't exist for another 20 years. Bear Bryant wouldn't be born for another 44 years. A little Midwest school named Notre Dame had just turned 27. Consider that -- in the history of officially recognized national championships -- only 30 teams have won it all. Since 1998, only 16 teams have played for a championship. Yes, it's an exclusive club -- this sport -- but we still love watching every darn minute.I plan to celebrate and enjoy every moment of my favorite sport's 150th birthday. Go Coogs!
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