Ike

I always take hurricane projections that are five or six days out with a huge grain of salt, but this could put a big crimp in my tailgating plans for Saturday:It's way too early to start evacuating - right now it looks like it's headed towards southern Texas, although we still don't know with any certainty where this thing is going or how strong it will be - but it's never too early to start making contingency plans, as Eric Berger explained earlier this afternoon:

I would anticipate the city of Houston wouldn't call for an evacuation until at least late Wednesday or Thursday, so now is definitely not the time to leave. But it is time to ask whether you would go if a major hurricane threatened the Greater Houston area.

So, should you go?

The answer lies in where you live, and the extent to which you are comfortable with the structure of your home. Following so closely after Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Rita prompted a lot of people to evacuate who normally might not
have.

Well, yeah, especially since people were sent into a panicked frenzy by an irresponsible and hysterical local news media. I'd like to think that, if Ike does threaten, the local media will be a bit more moderate in their coverage. Seeing the ridiculous lengths to which they went to cover Edouard a few weeks ago, however, I'm not optimistic.

Hopefully, local citizens will consult this map when considering whether to evacuate. As Eric explains:

If you live outside a surge zone officials do not recommend evacuation unless you live in a mobile home, or until you've waited for coastal residents to evacuate.

Only you know your home. Inland sustained winds are unlikely to be much above 100 mph in most storms, and most homes should withstand this. Problems can arise if tall trees fall on homes (especially pines), from projectiles picked up by wind, and possibly from tornadoes. But I think the advice from public officials is sound.

Since Rita, I've given this some thought. According to this map, I live close to, but outside of, Surge Zone C. I also live outside of a 100-year floodplain; my house did not flood during Alison. Also, since my house was built in 1946, it has successfully survived the winds of past major storms such as Carla and Alicia. Falling branches are a concern (although I'm glad we cut down that old oak in the front yard a few years ago) as is the likely lack of electricity (I did not lose power during Rita, but other streets in my neighborhood did), but I am confident that this house will survive a direct hit from anything up to a cat 3. The winds from a cat 4 or 5, on the other hand, would concern me to the point that I would consider evacuating to either my aunt's place in Temple or my aunt and uncle's house in Plano. But if I do decide to evacuate, I will do so because I feel that it is unsafe to stay, not because some "WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!1!" local meteorologist tells me to.

My decision to stay put during Rita turned out to the the right one for me. But I'll take these storms on a case-by-case basis. And I'll be paying close attention to Ike over the next few days.